- Trump’s big bill moves forward
- Moody’s downgrade
- Trump and Putin to talk
The president’s “big, beautiful bill” hit a speed bump on Friday when four Republicans on the House Budget Committee voted against advancing the legislation to the House floor. The vote in the committee was a 16 yes to 21 no. A fifth Republican changed his vote from yes to no to assure that the bill could be reconsidered by the committee. Under parliamentary rules only a member who voted on the prevailing side can ask for reconsideration.
On Sunday night, there was a re-vote in the Budget Committee and the bill was narrowly approved on a vote of 17 yes to 16 no, with all the no votes coming from Democrats. The four Republicans who voted no on Friday voted present on Sunday night, which signaled their concerns about the bill but allowed the President’s bill to move forward. The conservatives who voted present made clear that they are not yet ready to vote for the bill on the House floor. With the president back from his Middle East travels, he will be in DC to help move the big, beautiful bill forward. However, with their narrow six-seat majority, Republicans can only afford to lose two House Members to secure passage. The Speaker has a full-week ahead to cut more deals to keep both the ultra conservatives and moderates on board.
Assuming the House passes this bill on Friday, the legislation moves to the Senate, where there is some Republican unease with the cuts in Medicaid and other health benefits. The margin in the Senate is also very tight, with the 53Rs to 47Ds, which means the Republicans can only lose three votes. At this point, more than three Republican Senators have expressed reservations about the House version of the bill. However, as in the House, the resident is the best Republican lobbyist and Republican Leader John Thune is likely going to rely on the persuasive powers of the president to get the bill passed. At this point, there are questions about whether, even with the help of Trump, if the Senate can pass the House bill with no changes. For any legislation to go to the president for his signature, it requires that the two chambers pass the same language; hence the big, beautiful bill could take several more months to pass.
It appears the deadline for passage is late July as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that August is when the debt ceiling likely needs to be increased, and Congress usually leaves for a summer break at the end of July. A $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling is part of the Reconciliation legislation.
Moody’s downgrade
Washington has seen government policy newcomer Bessent take center stage on several key issues that include not only the budget and debt ceiling but also tariff talks with the U.S. trading partners. After Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, Bessent, a market pro, made an interesting statement: “Moody’s is a lagging indicator. I think that’s what everyone thinks of the credit agencies.” Getting the rising debt under control is Bessent’s responsibility and getting Congress to increase the debt ceiling in the president’s big bill is central to his success.
Foreign Policy
After an event filled trip to the Middle East, the president will be speaking on Monday to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In some remarks, the president has made one thing clear: the war in Ukraine will need the two presidents to meet in person to resolve the biggest issues. We should know after the call whether the two have been able to move the needle.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were all in Rome for the first mass conducted by Pope Leo the XIV. The three talked briefly and the atmosphere represented an improvement of relations from the tough talk in the White House meeting a few weeks ago.
