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Huge Advancing volume helps to give a lot of confidence

Trump’s tariff retreat coincided with record drops in the VIX along with a record number of points gained for DJIA on Wednesday. While it was difficult to try to call “the bottom” into Wednesday given the basis trade unwind in a very volatile market that had been trending down, there had been multiple technical factors that suggested a low was approaching and could be in place within a week. Following today, it’s likely, at a minimum, that market breadth has bottomed, and there is an increasing likelihood that Stock indices have made a low of importance. Treasuries rallied after the news along with a successful afternoon auction Wednesday, and seem to have calmed following the early day uproar over the tightening in swap spreads. Overall, I don’t mind being long here and looking to buy dips on either minor pullbacks or evidence of SPX regaining 5500. It’s right to say that the extent of the volume dispersion and range in Wednesday’s session helps to provide a bit more confidence in this rally than a normal bounce might given. However, given that prices are now nearing the most important area of the decline from a structural perspective, the next few days will be important in exceeding SPX 5500, QQQ-466.43, and DJIA-40,661 to give even more confidence. As discussed yesterday, the bounce into June-August will say much about whether a larger correction and/or recession can be avoided.  

Wednesday’s about-face was impressive in its breadth and volume, not to mention its low to high range. SPX, DJIA and QQQ are all now nearing the prior March lows which are crucial to exceed to have more confidence about this rally extending.

As touched on briefly yesterday, I believe the combination of capitulatory volume in recent days coupled with high TRIN readings, high Equity Put/call readings, and severe oversold conditions in breadth and momentum gave some ample clues that an above-average rally might be around the corner. 

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