“The biggest liar in the world is They Say.” – Douglas Malloch
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
The ongoing commodities bull market has everyone’s attention this year. But it has commodities traders annoyed.
Metals like gold and copper have hit records this year, rallying 20% and 25%, respectively, while coffee has added 21% and natural gas is up 31%. Steel prices, meanwhile, are near 12-month highs. The S&P 500, in comparison, has declined 3.4%.
A confluence of reasons has boosted commodities prices. Some of it can be attributed to the new administration’s tariffs threats. In the case of agricultural commodities, weather-related reasons are one of the main culprits, which have exacerbated an already low supply.
It’s been chaotic, but that’s what commodities traders love. Over the past few decades, they have emerged as key players in the global markets, connecting resource-rich countries with the world’s financial centers. (As an aside, we highly recommend reading The World For Sale by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy for an eye opening tale of how natural resources make their way into our daily lives.)
Trading commodities has become even harder recently, thanks to President Trump. His frequent messages on X and his Truth Social platform have sparked volatility often during odd hours, catching commodities traders’ off guard.
Perhaps that’s why Swiss commodities trading company Trafigura’s new Chief Executive, Richard Holtum, told the FT he was “semi-seriously” considering changing traders’ working hours in Geneva to 2 p.m. to midnight. A good chunk of commodities trading takes place in Europe these days.
This is what the FT reported he said during the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne: “The European hours are pretty quiet in the morning these days. You just wait for President Trump to wake up and decide how your day is going to go.”
He’s far from the only one considering it. The chief financial officer of the world’s largest independent energy trader, Vitol, said Trump’s constant social media posts and a barrage of executive orders have made it harder to trade.
“When you wake up in the morning, those statements can overwhelm any research we do, so it just naturally draws away risk capital from the market,” Jeff Dellapina said to the FT. That tends to “compress volatility, which then has obviously put us in much tighter trading ranges in core commodities.”
To be honest, this is not entirely new: Back when the memestock mania happened, it pushed many banks and trading firms to ask analysts to track Reddit chats and Facebook groups to figure out retail investors’ next moves.
If commodities traders do end up working odd hours, hopefully it’s not too bumpy of a ride. But we wouldn’t want to bet on that.
How much does social media affect your trading decisions? Click here to send us your response.
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Catch up with FS Insight
The market has been under notable pressure following the adverse developments tied to the so-called “Tariff Liberation Day,” which was far more disruptive than initially expected, in part due to what appears to be a fundamental breach of capitalism’s regulatory covenant. Despite this upheaval, there are clear signs the situation could de-escalate in the coming days.
Technical
While sentiment, oversold conditions, and multiple signs of possible support look to be present with equal-weighted SPX and stocks like NVDA down to important levels, it’s hard to have much confidence without evidence of some immediate stabilization.
Crypto
While equities continued to get pummeled last week, Bitcoin really just hung in there. If we look at Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 as a ratio, we’re a mere 12% below all-time highs that we reached earlier this year, which is remarkable to see and potentially has interesting implications.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Dow futures, Asian stocks plunge as Trump tariff turmoil deepens WSJ
- Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ soars to 8-month high FT
Markets and economy
- Economists take issue with Trump’s tariff formula, arguing rate is inflated CNBC
- Americans are sitting on a cash pile as stocks reel WSJ
Business
- Meta debuts new Llama 4 models, but most powerful AI model is still to come CNBC
- Google DeepMind AI masters Minecraft SEM
- Britain to dilute rules for smaller private equity firms and hedge funds FT
- Samsung Q1 profit to drop 21% on weak AI chip sales, foundry losses REU
Politics
- Justice Department suspends lawyer over candid comments on immigration case WSJ
- Anti-Trump protests hit cities across the US SEM
Overseas
- Thai arrest warrant issued for US academic under ban on insulting royalty BBC
- US closes in on critical minerals deal with DR Congo FT
- Ex-Costa Rica president and Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias says U.S. revoked his visa after Trump criticism LAT
- South Korea sets June 3 for presidential election, Yonhap says BBG
Of Interest
- Alex Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky’s NHL career goals record by scoring his 895th AP
- ‘A Minecraft Movie’ shatters box office expectations with record-breaking $157 million opening weekend VAR
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -168
point(s) (-3.3%
) Overnight range: -278 to -103 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -7.83%
Topix -7.79% China SHCOMP -7.34% Hang Seng -13.22% Korea -5.57% Singapore -7.46% Australia -4.23% India -3.47% Taiwan -9.7% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -5.87%
Stoxx 600 -5.32% FTSE 100 -4.47% DAX -5.82% CAC 40 -5.82% Italy -6.55% IBEX -5.69% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.15%
to 102.87 EUR/USD -0.04% to 1.0952 GBP/USD -0.33% to 1.2845 USD/JPY -0.5% to 146.19 USD/CNY +0.42% to 7.3124 USD/CNH +0.46% to 7.3283 USD/CHF -0.94% to 0.8527 USD/CAD +0.27% to 1.4258 AUD/USD -0.43% to 0.6014 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -2.73%
to 76658.82 ETH -4.63% to 1501.23 XRP -8.61% to 1.7805 Cardano -3.36% to 0.5527 Solana -4.72% to 101.45 Avalanche -2.56% to 15.62 Dogecoin -6.69% to 0.1394 Chainlink -4.1% to 10.83 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +18.08%
to 53.5 WTI Crude -3.98% to 59.52 Brent Crude -3.69% to 63.16 Nat Gas -2.84% to 3.73 RBOB Gas -2.7% to 1.999 Heating Oil -2.38% to 2.032 Gold -0.4% to 3026.23 Silver +2.33% to 30.27 Copper -1.79% to 4.323 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.1bps
to 4.2519% 3M -6.5bps to 4.1774% 6M -7.9bps to 4.0025% 12M -13.9bps to 3.6859% 2Y -10.1bps to 3.5508% 5Y -7.4bps to 3.6348% 7Y -5.6bps to 3.7782% 10Y -3.6bps to 3.9586% 20Y +0.2bps to 4.435% 30Y +0.1bps to 4.4099% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 6.0bps to -67.3
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 6.7bps to 40.4 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 4.0bps to 44.9 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -5.97%
SPX Eq Wt -5.61% NASDAQ 100 -6.07% NASDAQ Comp -5.82% Russell Midcap -5.83% R2k -4.37% R1k Value -6.03% R1k Growth -5.9% R2k Value -4.08% R2k Growth -4.66% FANG+ -5.67% Semis -7.55% Software -6.15% Biotech -5.73% Regional Banks -4.0% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Disc -4.5% Cons Staples -4.55% REITs -4.62% Comm Srvcs -4.89% Healthcare -5.5% Utes -5.58% SPX -5.97% Materials -6.29% Indu -6.29% Tech -6.33% Fin -7.39% Energy -8.7% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -0.2bp
to 468bp All Sectors ex-Energy -2.2bp to 421bp Cons Disc -2.7bp to 460bp Indu -4.2bp to 359bp Tech +13.3bp to 486bp Comm Srvcs +6.0bp to 659bp Materials -8.1bp to 443bp Energy +6.7bp to 500bp Fin Snr -0.2bp to 401bp Fin Sub -9.6bp to 284bp Cons Staples -2.2bp to 317bp Healthcare -4.6bp to 481bp Utes -9.7bp to 323bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/8 | 6AM | Mar Small Biz Optimisum | 99.0 | 100.7 |
| 4/9 | 2PM | Mar 19 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0.0 |
| 4/10 | 8:30AM | Mar CPI m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 4/10 | 8:30AM | Mar Core CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4/10 | 8:30AM | Mar CPI y/y | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| 4/10 | 8:30AM | Mar Core CPI y/y | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| 4/11 | 8:30AM | Mar PPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4/11 | 8:30AM | Mar Core PPI m/m | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| 4/11 | 10AM | Apr P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| 4/11 | 10AM | Apr P UMich Sentiment | 54.0 | 57.0 |
