A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“I drink to make other people more interesting.” – Ernest Hemingway
Overnight
Meta Ends Fact-Checking on Facebook, Instagram in Free-Speech Pitch WSJ
Biden Administration Moves to Ban Medical Debt From Credit Reports NYT
US corporate bankruptcies hit 14-year high as interest rates take toll FT
The economy grew rapidly in the past 2 years. Can it keep it up under Trump 2.0? MW
ILA union and port owners held secret meeting on automation as new strike looms CNBC
McDonald’s is the latest company to roll back diversity goals AP
Nvidia CEO Pitches Robotics, Cars as Growth Areas to Consumer-Electronics Audience WSJ
Canada Tilts Right: Inflation Claims Trudeau as Its Latest Victim BBG
The Populist Vying to Lead Canada and End a Decade of Liberalism WSJ
Javier Milei’s next economic mission: affordable air fryers FT
Fubo stock skyrockets 250% after streamer strikes a deal to combine with Disney’s Hulu+ Live TV CNBC
Trump is expected to hold a news conference on Tuesday morning NYT
New Orleans holds 1st parade of Carnival season 5 days after deadly attack on Bourbon Street AP
U.S. records its first human bird flu death NBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +6
point(s) (+0.1%
) overnight range: -14 to +12 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +1.97%
Topix +1.10% China SHCOMP +0.71% Hang Seng -1.22% Korea +0.14% Singapore +0.17% Australia +0.33% India +0.39% Taiwan +0.44% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.76%
Stoxx 600 +0.42% FTSE 100 -0.24% DAX +0.52% CAC 40 +0.85% Italy +0.30% IBEX +0.44% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.01%
to 108.24 EUR/USD +0.01% to 1.0391 GBP/USD +0.10% to 1.2532 USD/JPY -0.04% to 157.68 USD/CNY +0.02% to 7.3270 USD/CNH +0.09% to 7.3391 USD/CHF -0.29% to 0.9072 USD/CAD +0.09% to 1.4319 AUD/USD +0.48% to 0.6276 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 0.5bps to -2.5bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.2bps to 35.4bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.3bps to 21.9bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.55%
SPX Eq Wt -0.07% NASDAQ 100 +1.09% NASDAQ Comp +1.24% Russell Midcap +0.06% R2k -0.08% R1k Value -0.13% R1k Growth +1.12% R2k Value -0.34% R2k Growth +0.16% FANG+ +1.80% Semis +3.32% Software +0.21% Biotech -0.22% Regional Banks +0.21% SPX GICS1 Sorted: REITs -1.40% Utes -1.10% Cons Staples -0.98% Fin -0.42% Energy -0.41% Indu -0.21% Healthcare -0.02% SPX +0.55% Cons Disc +0.61% Materials +0.66% Tech +1.44% Comm Srvcs +2.13% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +0.2bps
to 305bps All Sectors ex-Energy +0.1bps 287bps Cons Disc +0.3bps 256bps Indu +1.2bps 233bps Tech +0.4bps 306bps Comm Srvcs -2.6bps 494bps Materials -0.2bps 283bps Energy +0.2bps 281bps Fin Snr +0.8bps 267bps Fin Sub +0.1bps 194bps Cons Staples +0.5bps 267bps Healthcare +0.2bps 362bps Utes +0.4bps 215bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/7 | 8:30 AM | Nov Trade Balance | -78.3 | -73.836 |
| 1/7 | 10:00 AM | Dec ISM Srvcs PMI | 53.5 | 52.1 |
| 1/7 | 10:00 AM | Nov JOLTS | 7740 | 7744 |
| 1/8 | 2:00 PM | Dec 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 1/8 | 2:00 PM | Dec 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 1/10 | 8:30 AM | Dec AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 1/10 | 8:30 AM | Dec Unemployment Rate | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 1/10 | 8:30 AM | Dec Non-farm Payrolls | 163 | 227 |
| 1/10 | 10:00 AM | Jan P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 1/10 | 10:00 AM | Jan P UMich Sentiment | 74 | 74 |
| 1/13 | 11:00 AM | Dec NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 2.97 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We do not believe inflation is re-surging, as many are fearing and as implied by the rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. While the rise in yields is somewhat puzzling, we do not think inflation is suddenly strengthening in 2025.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX and QQQ could be stalling out after two-day bounce to resistance.
- Chart of equal-weighted SPX shows how much damage happened in recent weeks.
- Crude likely retreats in the near-term following recent sharp bounce.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
We discuss the market’s reaction to tariff-related rumors, how it impacts crypto, and why we’re feeling more optimistic about this rally’s sustainability.
Click HERE for more.
First News
The alcohol industry might be dealing with its worst Dry January yet. Surprisingly, shares of drink makers don’t seem to be too affected.
On Friday, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy issued a warning that alcohol consumption is a leading cause of preventable cancer and suggested that bottles and cans should carry cancer warning labels.
Shares of alcohol makers posted minor losses in response the same day. Molson Coors Beverage dropped 3.4%, Anheuser Busch InBev slipped 2.8%, and Heineken fell 1.8%.
They recovered some of their gains to start the week, despite the heaviness of the news. However, on a closer look, the partial bounce may not be as surprising as many may think for at least three reasons.
The first reason is a bit technical. While negative news like this typically has an immediate impact on share-price performance, the stock market holds a long-term view. Perhaps that’s why even big events fail to have a prolonged impact on the market. That was especially true when markets crashed in early 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic only to post fresh records a few months later.
The second reason is specific to alcohol companies. They’ve been ramping up production of no- and low-alcohol for a while now, and it’s becoming a big business, too. Global sales for non-alcoholic booze were nearly $20 billion in 2023, double the amount from five years ago, The Economist, citing Euromonitor data, said.
A few examples:
- Diageo, the maker of Johnnie Walker Scotch whisky and Captain Morgan rum and others, has invested millions to boost production of the non-alcoholic variant of its Guinness Stout. It also recently acquired Ritual, a non-alcoholic drinks brand.
- LVMH’s wines and spirits division has invested in French Bloom, a brand of alcohol-free sparkling wines.
- AB InBev has increased the number of no-and-low alcohol beer products in its portfolio by 60% and volumes by more than 23% since 2019.
Drink makers are investing millions into this because the number of Americans who view alcohol consumption as bad for health hit a new high, according to a Gallup survey. More surprising in the survey: About 65% of U.S. adults aged 18 to 34 say alcohol consumption negatively affects one’s health, significantly up from 30% in early 2000s.
The third reason is obvious. Some people like to drink, and the party must go on.
It’s the stock market, so anything is possible for shares of drink makers. But for now, you needn’t pour one out for them.
