SPX breakdown unexpected, but doesn’t look to extend much further Array ( [cookie] => cc7da3-396ed3-9470e8-d09e9a-23947d [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 571364 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
The big switch in the Dot plot to match Swaps markets pricing of fewer cuts for 2025 caught the market off-guard on Wednesday, resulting in a trend violation for SPX while the NASDAQ managed to show divergence positively. SPX price seems to have caught up quickly with the recently deteriorating market breadth, but given the SPX cycle bottoming by late this week, I suspect that weakness proves short-lived and minor in scope before stabilizing and helping markets begin a late December rally. Overall, this weakness appears short-term only, and some evidence of capitulation will likely result in a bottoming process by the end of the week for US stocks.
Bottom line, Wednesday’s post-FOMC meeting volatility proved extreme but likely does not extend past 3-5 days before beginning a rally into the end of the year.
Dismal breadth readings along with bearish market cycles had certainly given an advance warning sign, and while many sectors along with the DJIA itself had been falling in recent days, Wednesday proved to be the first time that SPX and QQQ had reacted negatively to join the plummeting breadth figures.


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