Stocks Open December With Gains as Bitcoin Breaks $100K Threshold Array ( [cookie] => ca8918-ab4b66-ceff54-45689b-668291 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_pro [visitor_id] => 567897 [reason] => [method] => ) 1

“Each second we live is a new and unique moment of the universe a moment that never was before and never will be again” ― Pablo Casals

Good evening, 

Stocks extended their gains for another week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notching fresh records. That was in line with Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee's and Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton’s expectations for a December rally. 

Lee has seasonality on his side: since 1950, when the S&P 500 was up by at least 10% in the first half of the year (the S&P 500 was up ~14% for 1H2024), stocks have advanced in December 83% of the time, with median gains of 2.9%. If we narrow our historical analysis down to election years, that win ratio rises to 100% of the time, with median gains of 3.4%.  At current levels, this would imply $SPX at around 6,250 by the end of 2024. Furthermore, in years in which the S&P 500 has gained over 25% by the end of November (at the end of November 2024 it was up 26.5% for the year), historical data suggests December sees median gains of 2.5%.