AAPL breakout creates tailwind for SPX despite cyclical downward pressure Array ( [cookie] => 88f86a-bc2148-6126f9-f188f7-b09cf2 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 1 [max_usage_crypto] => 1 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_pro [visitor_id] => 556868 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Equity trends from August remain bullish, and SPX has neared the upper edge of its four-month channel resistance while the NASDAQ Composite has now pushed back to new all-time highs. Treasury yields and the US Dollar are both positioned technically for declines in December, and their recent weakness has not yet had any effect on the current appetite for US Equities. Thus far, no evidence of consolidation has played out which lines up with cycle projections and lackluster breadth since September. Overall, while Sentiment, cycles, and DeMark signals, along with lackluster Technology participation, made SPX seem like a risky bet following its 15% rally in 15 weeks from August lows, there simply hasn’t been any evidence of price weakness. As the saying goes, it remains difficult to bet against uptrends in December. While I expect some consolidation in SPX before the price gets above 6100, it could be limited to 5950 given the recent breakout in stocks like AAPL, which are important to SPX and QQQ. Thus, for those looking for a possible near-term consolidation, it could happen from 12/5 until the December expiration before an end-of-year rally.
Overall, pullbacks haven’t happened on schedule, and despite the negative market breadth for US Equities to kick off December 2024 trading, where four sectors out of 11 fell greater than 1%, the bigger news seems to revolve around the NASDAQ Composite finally breaking out above 11/11 peaks.
It seems like the avoidance of this current cyclical downtrend projection might create a larger downward bias in mid-January when the shorter-term cycle looks to peak again.
Subscribe Today to FSI Macro
If you are an existing member, to see your special offers.
|
|||
Claim This Offer! |
|
|||
Claim This Offer! |
At FS Insight we offer a 30-day risk-free cancellation period for all new memberships.
View all FS Insight products with our exclusive Black Friday offers!Why FS Insight
FS Insight helps you invest confidently with the same research banks and hedge funds use.
Daily Updates from Tom Lee
Start your day with Tom Lee’s pre-opening bell report. Navigate the trading day with Tom’s daily macro minute video and updates on key developments.
Real-Time Alerts from Tom Lee and Mark Newton
Stay in the loop with FlashInsights, real-time commentary on market-moving events delivered instantly from our research heads to you.
Daily Technical Strategy
Report
and Video
Tactical opportunities and actionable signals, including daily in-depth analysis on current market technicals.
Monthly Market Update Webinars Presenting Timely Top Ideas
Get a behind-the-scenes look at our top stock ideas. Learn what makes each pick timely at our monthly webinar and Q&A with Tom and Mark.
Access Stock Lists Developed by Tom Lee and Mark Newton
We offer a variety of stock lists across methodologies and time horizons. Choose the portfolio that best fits your investment style.
Engage with Tom and Mark
Your membership includes members-only webinars and fireside chats. Join Q&As with our research team, CEOs, and industry experts across AI, geopolitics, and more.