Trump Wins, Senate Flips, House TBD

Key Takeaways
  • The outcome of the Presidential election emerged sooner than some expected, and with the Senate flipping to GOP control, the possibility of a Republican sweep is very possible.
  • In the coming weeks, President-elect Trump will likely signal his immediate intentions through those he appoints to key positions.
  • The areas of foreign policy, the economy, and immigration will present immediately pressing concerns, and Trump has made ambitious promises in those areas.

For the second time in his life, Donald Trump has the title of “President-elect,” and from now on, history students will learn the name of Donald Trump along with Grover Cleveland as Presidents who served non-consecutive terms.

With a decision arriving in the early hours of Wednesday, concerns about a protracted vote count, domestic unrest caused by contested state results, and uncertainty about the outcome all disappeared. President Trump’s message resonated not only in the South and U.S. heartland, but also in states that had been part of the Democratic blue wall such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His coattails helped the Republicans flip the Senate, with clear victories in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana.  The split will be at least 52 to 48, though with a few more seats yet to be decided, the Republican majority might turn out to be larger.

The House remains too close to call, but after seeing the extent of President Trump’s victory, it is very possible that Republicans can hold to their narrow House majority and give the President-elect a clean sweep of the Executive and Legislative branches.

Now comes the hard part: how does the newly elected President, his team, and Congressional leaders translate the electoral mandate into policy.

Foreign Policy

On foreign policy, the new administration will face grave challenges with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.  The President-elect has a strong relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who visited President Trump at his Florida home on a recent trip to the U.S. 

During the campaign, President Trump declared that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine. Now, that promise will need to be turned into policy.  The months immediately after the election of a new President of the opposite party are always delicate, as the sitting President still controls all the levers of power, but in the coming weeks President Trump will signal his intentions through the people he appoints to key positions.

Economy

The Trump Tax Plan expires next year, and with his re-election, control of the Senate, and perhaps control of the House, the chances seem good that most of the program will be extended.

Much attention will be focused on the new President’s choice for Treasury Secretary.  My former boss at JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon, will be on any shortlist.  He gives instant credibility to global markets, and from all reports, he is ready to move on from his long tenure at JPMorgan.

Jamie was CEO for the last part of my tenure at the firm, and during that time we had several conversations. He has a deep interest in public policy, and I can see him joining the new Administration.

Immigration

Perhaps the new President’s greatest challenge will be how to deliver on his promises to close the border and “on day one” deport 10 million illegal immigrants.  We may get some clues as he announces key positions, but just as the border was a challenge for the Biden administration, so too will it be a challenge to the new Trump administration.

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