Vaccination efforts have begun to improve and there are some glimmers of light in healthcare data. We also are seeing evidence in alternative economic data that the economic recovery will be stronger than forecast.

So, even as the US is in the midst of winter, it seems like COVID-19 case trends have improved considerably. But the holiday distortions could still be in effect (making 7D delta look better than it actually is). However, net hospitalizations turned negative for the first time since September. This is a very good sign.

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Strategy: FOMO Scenario: Energy in 2021 somewhat akin to Tesla in early 2020

So far, 2020 has marked the start of the rotation out of FANG into Energy and Financials. These two sectors are up 18% and 7%, respectively to start the year. FANG and Comm. Services are down about 5% and 4%, respectively. Wow.

As I wrote in my 2021 Outlook, the re-alignment of supply/demand outlook for Energy is the most dramatic of any sector. The new White House is likely to limit future supply growth. Capital availability is limited as private equity unlikely to bail out the sector like they did in 2016. And demand will certainly also recover as the global economic recovery accelerates.

And at 2.5% weight, Energy is now the smallest sector in the S&P ...

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