Telegram
S&P 4000 likely in Q1 2021 – Accumulate near-term weakness

Cyclicals surged this past Monday in response to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement prompting some of our clients to ask whether they should fade the rally given the reacceleration in COVID cases.

While I am expecting equity markets to chop sideways in the very short-term to digest their recent gains, I do not recommend fading the recent rally in equities overall nor cyclicals specifically. From my perspective, I continue to see the technical backdrop improving rather than decaying and expect further upside through year-end well into the first quarter. Simply doubling the recent 11+% trading range that developed between September-November would support a move toward S&P 4000 by early-mid Q1. See this week’s chart featured below. More importantly, the longer-term 4-year cycle work I study suggests the current cycle should support equities through 2021 into 2022 before a cycle peak develops. If prior 4-year market cycles in secular bull markets are any guide for the current cycle, then a move toward 4400-4600 is possible before the cycle peaks.

You are trying to access FSI member-only content.
You need to have an active FSI Macro, or FSI Pro subcription in order to read this article.
If you are already a member at FSInsight, please Sign In here. If you don’t have a subscription to FSInsight yet, you can sign up below.

Choose one of our yearly plans to save nearly 20%

We accept crypto via BitPay for yearly subscriptions.
    • Macro
      FSI Macro
      fsi macro black friday price
      Get access to all the macro research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's Live Market BLASTs
      • View from Tom Lee
      • Signal From Noise
      • Portfolio Strategy
      • Technical Analysis
      • Granny Shots – Stock Ideas
      • US Policy
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Crypto
      FSI Digital Assets
      fsi digital assets black friday price
      Get access to all the crypto research on FSInsight
      • Tom Lee's Live Crypto BLASTs
      • Tom's Take on Crypto
      • Crypto Weekly Newsletter
      • BitDigest Daily Newsletter
      • Crypto Technical Analysis
      • Benchmark Indices Review
      • Bitcoin Valuation & Misery Indexes
      • Live Conference Calls with Q&A
      First Month Free!
    • Macro + Crypto
      FSI Pro
      fsi digital assets black friday price
      Get access to all the exclusive research on FSInsight
      • Looking at code?
      • I am hidden!
      • FSI Macro
      • +
      • FSI Digital Assets
      • Designed by
      • HANGAR115
      • -
      First Month Free!
Disclosures (show)

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free

first 500 users only

FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An insitutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2020 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.