Lame Duck Stimulus and Election
Stimulus
There is a growing consensus that a lame duck session, with the pressure of the election removed, may create the atmosphere for a coronavirus relief package. However, with several election outcomes possible, it is not clear which election results would create the best legislative environment.
Possibly the biggest unknown is the state of mind of a defeated President Trump. Some in DC believe he would be focused on his legacy and may champion a broad bill to secure the success of the CARES Act to his record as President. A lame duck stimulus is likely to include money for a mass inoculation program, and the President may want a program that ends the pandemic to be part of his legacy.
A victorious President Trump will be anxious to get the economy moving, and a large stimulus would undoubtedly be central to economic recovery. Speaker Pelosi has made clear that she wants to see a stimulus bill in the lame duck; and the post-election Congressional session may ease some of the pressure between the Speaker and the President.
There are two key dates: December 11 when the government funding bill must pass, and December 31 when over 13 million Americans lose their unemployment benefit without an extension by Congress. Different scenarios depending on control of the White House and Senate; but resolution will hopefully be clear next week.
Election
With the 2016 results showing the polls to be so wrong, at this point I will make a few observations.
1. Lack of clarity on who benefits from what looks like a record voter turnout, some estimate between 10 to 15 million voters more than 2016. President Trump did a remarkable job getting his voters out to vote in 2016. Are there new pro-Trump voters who didn’t vote in 2016 and are coming out this year? Or are young voters, women, and people of color more energized and voting Democratic?
2. A lot has been written about shy Trump voters, but I am seeing shy Biden voters. The shy Biden voters are committed Republicans who will vote Republican down the ballot except for President. While this may hurt the President, it could help save the Republican Senate majority.
3. With huge majorities in California and New York, Biden will win the popular vote, so ignore the national polling in the closing days; but most of the polls in the battleground states are within the margin of error and too close to call. President Trump outperforms the polls, so close poll numbers should give Democrats reason for concern.
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