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College Cases Increasing but Binary Event Catalyst on Horizon

USA COVID-19 cases came in at 44,543 Thursday, which is +788 higher vs 7D ago.  So, there is a clear "stall" in the pace of improvements. It seems like college students returning to campus is fueling another round of cases. The two states with the largest increase are Iowa and Alabama.  This week, Iowa took an emergency measure to close bars. There have been widely reported outbreaks at several college campuses in Alabama. So, both states are aware of these surges and hopefully are taking sufficient corrective measures. 

Colleges are going to struggle to contain COVID-19 cases.  I am not sure if it is possible for cases to be zero on a campus. The reason is due to the existing prevalence of COVID-19.  If we look at the University of Alabama and its 20,000 returning students, we estimate that 30 to 40 of the returning students were contagious when they arrived on campus. 

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