As expected, June saw a better-than-expected June jobs number (albeit still bad) with 4.8 million jobs added and a drop in unemployment to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. (For more see page 1.)

That unemployment rate remains in post-WW II record territory. Additionally, the job numbers are assembled mid-month so the recent outbreaks and subsequent closings in Florida, Texas, and California are not reflected. In any event, it seems generally agreed that one more round of relief legislation is likely to be the centerpiece of Congressional action for its summer session later this month. The question will be how much?

Congress decamps today for the July 4 Holiday and currently plans to return July 20th. At that time the Senate is expected to start to assemble its response to the House $3 trillion package passed in May. Long breaks in Congress are important for policy as legislators are better able to gauge voter sentiment when they are back in their home states.

Big issues to be addressed in July will be the future of the supplemental unemployment benefit that expires at the end of the month, whether to allow for second loans for small businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), considering a new round of individual stimulus checks, and a likely Republican proposal to give liability protection for business from coronavirus suits.

PPP got a small positive boost this past week when the House and Senate both passed, under unanimous consent, legislation extending the deadline for PPP loan applications to August 8 from the June 30 expiration date. Approximately $130 billion remain unused at the Small Business Administration and the extended deadline will allow more small businesses to apply for the program that aims to allow businesses to rehire laid-off employees and pay operating costs with the potential of having the loan forgiven by the government.

Two big cases are likely to be handed down by Supreme Court next week: one on so-called fickle Electoral Colleges voters, and the politically charged decision on whether or not the President needs to comply with subpoenas from the Congress, and a grand jury in New York.

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