Congress is set to adjourn next week for the July 4 break and isn’t scheduled to return until July 20. Next week will likely see more jockeying for position on police reform but little action on a Phase 4 coronavirus relief package.

The Senate has been sitting on the $3 trillion Phase 4 bill passed by the House of Representatives, as Senate Republicans and the White House agree on the next steps. While some fiscally conservative Republicans have been talking about the need to move away from direct relief, the President appears to be moving towards more stimulus relief and more Republicans are getting concerned that the hope of a stronger economy is their best issue for both the President and Congress.

Despite the historic downturn, President Donald Trump still polls well with respect to confidence in his ability to be better than Democrats in managing the economy.

Next Thursday the Labor Department will announce the June employment numbers and they will set the tone for the Washington debate on next steps for a relief package. The President has stated his support for some sort of stimulus check, and on Tuesday this past week Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the leading advocate within the Administration for another stimulus check, joined Republican Senators for their weekly policy lunch. Additionally, the rise in cases in Republican strongholds of Texas, Arizona and Florida will add more pressure to pass some bill in July. (For more, see page 3.)

At this point everything is on the table: stimulus checks, another round of PPP checks, the federal supplemental unemployment payment, money for state and local government, and the Republican demand that businesses get liability protection against virus related suits.

When Congress returns on July 20, they are scheduled to be in session for three weeks before heading out of town again for their annual August break. With the virus on the rise, states like Texas stepping back from their business openings, and the approaching elections it is hard to imagine the Congress leaving town for a summer break without a Phase 4 package; but the contents are yet to be determined and it will be front and center over the next month.

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