Whew! After a week of extreme geopolitical tensions over a potential war with Iran, this upcoming week seems positively easy by comparison.

Next week appears set for some important steps on U.S.-China trade, and the likely beginning of the impeachment trial in the Senate, as well as the final Democratic debate before the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, February 3.

Nevertheless, the threat of terroristic violence from Iran is not going away, and the killing of General Soleimani will hang over the region for a while. The general was the key Iranian link to the proxy terrorist groups and an action by one of these groups can’t be ruled out. If a rogue attack (not sanctioned by Tehran) or even one blessed by Tehran kills Americans, tensions will return quickly and President’s Donald Trump inclination towards peace will be tested.

While the final text for the Phase One China trade deal has not been released both sides have confirmed a signing next week on January 15 at the White House. China will be sending Vice Premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He to give his John Hancock to the agreement, which will be followed up with a likely spring trip to Beijing by President Trump.

Also, on the trade front, the Senate Finance Committee approved, on a bipartisan vote of 25 to 3, the revised NAFTA, known as USMCA. The timing of a final Senate vote remains up in the air with a potential impeachment trial pending, but it could come up as early as next week if Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi continues to hold up the official transmission of the impeachment articles to the Senate. Regardless, even if it doesn’t come up before impeachment it is likely to be the first order of business after the trial. With the treaty’s approval by the House at the end of last year, once the Senate acts it will go to the President for his signature.

Next Tuesday will be the last Democratic Presidential debate prior to the Iowa Caucuses on February 3. With the last-minute addition of businessman Tom Steyer there will be six candidates on the debate stage. As with all the debates attention will be on front runner Joe Biden to see if he is up to the rigors of a campaign.

Another debate focus could be real fireworks between Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the latter struggles to be a progressive alternative to Sanders. At this point it appears that Sanders is capturing the progressive vote and leaving little room for Warren to gather a voting block. The other candidates will all be anxious to have a good night as they try to become the moderate alternative if Biden falters.

Figure: Top Trump Tweets

Trade Deals and Dem Debates on Tap: Iran Fades—for Now
Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You are reading the last free article for this month.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)