In my previous missives about 2020, I outlined our market view from 30,000 feet, so to speak, that our base case outlook is U.S. stocks rise 10% plus—to about 3450 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. This is predicated on index earnings growth of about the same amount or better this year.

Let’s dive deeper now and see what styles, sectors and stocks I believe might work in this new year. My basic longer term-premise is that investors should overweight value and cyclical stocks, for reasons I’ll enumerate below. In particular, I favor technology, industrials, energy and basic materials sectors.

In general, my themes for 2020 include the following:

  • Overweight American stocks, as the U.S. decouples from the rest of the world
  • Overweight technology, as technology/industrial companies will supply “nonhuman” labor and increase productivity
  • Overweight asset heavy companies, as coming reflation will hurt those “subscription” asset light models and boost asset heavy models.
  • Overweight companies exposed to the Millennial generation, as this bulging demographic cohort will be the primary driver of credit expansion in the future.
And, in general, overweight value stocks versus growth, because we expect that as economic growth improves it will become a...

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