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Is a Softer Greenback in the Future?

If you haven’t been paying attention to currencies lately, I would encourage you to take a closer look at the greenback (USD) chart below: a major trend shift appears to be developing. The USD is reversing its 2018-2019 uptrend over the past few weeks, which I view as another important tailwind developing for equities, notably cyclicals, in 2H19.

The USD rise in early 2018 coincided with a global shift in investors risk appetite, with assets like emerging markets and cyclicals generally peaking and heading lower through that year. My expectation at the beginning of 2019 was that that USD was likely peaking and would head lower, but the dollar managed to claw out marginal, albeit temporary, new highs in May.

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