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U.S. Bonds Starting to Look Pricey After a Big Move

U.S. Bonds Starting to Look Pricey After a Big Move It wasn’t a pretty week for stocks. Bonds, however, were another story. Investors ran to U.S. Treasury 10-year bonds and yields fell, as global rates incrementally turn negative and the economic implications of trade worries deepens. (For more see page 3)

However, 10-year bond yields (bond prices move inversely to yields) have now declined into a technical band defined by a 50-62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rebound after downside moves from 2018 highs. This size retracement is often a level from which rebounds develop, which to me raises the question of whether bond yields are getting overdone on the downside. That is, bonds might be pricey.

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