Crypto Research

TREASURY REFUNDING AND ITS IMPACT ON ASSET PRICES The bond market has been experiencing notable volatility, predominantly due to a phenomenon known as a bear steepening. This situation arises when short-term interest rates remain stable, but long-term rates rise precipitously. We attribute this volatility largely to an increase in the supply of long-duration assets, propelled by a growing budget deficit and the expectation of ongoing Treasury issuances. While this bond...

INTRODUCTION Blockchain networks initially were more like closed-loop systems, meaning the value created and traded on-chain was confined to crypto native assets. As technology has developed, blockchains and the real world are becoming more intertwined. Crypto protocols and TradFi institutions alike are looking to tokenize real-world assets and benefit from transaction efficiencies, cost savings, interoperability, composability, and transparency. Protocols have already begun bringing assets like dollars and treasuries on-chain while...

Equity indices reacted positively to the release of the U.S. Treasury’s funding schedule this morning, with the SPY and QQQ both rising over 0.60%. The Federal Reserve Committee is set to meet today and announce a decision on interest rates at 2 pm EST. The market is not expecting any surprises as interest rates will likely be held at current levels. Crypto markets are mixed ahead of the Fed meeting,...

Major equity indexes are recovering after giving up some of yesterday's gains. Short-term rates are on the rise, causing an uptick in the DXY index, while long-term rates have edged lower, potentially in response to yesterday's Treasury refunding preview that suggested Q4 debt issuance might be less than initially expected. These developments precede a pivotal macroeconomic day tomorrow featuring PMI, JOLTs data, and an FOMC decision. Additional information on the...

This week is a busy one for macro events, with the BOJ, FOMC, and BOE all having monetary policy meetings, beginning with the BOJ tomorrow and the FOMC on Wednesday. It is expected that the FOMC will hold interest rates steady and signal that any further rate hikes will be contingent on financial conditions and economic data. As investors await, the SPY and QQQ have both gained approximately 0.80% today. Crypto...

WEEKLY RECAP Funding is following the market higher, jumping $29 million from last week to $141 million. This week also saw a jump in activity, with 25 deals closed compared to 13 last week. Infrastructure was by far the most popular category, with 14 deals announced. Deals were funded in numerous infrastructure verticals, including trading software, payments, and compliance, among others. From a deal stage perspective, raises remain concentrated on Seed...

In this week's Crypto Comments video, we discuss a positive shift in capital flows across various metrics and China's accommodative monetary policy, potentially providing fuel for a more sustainable rally. Click HERE for our full Crypto Strategy note.

INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL BACK IN THE FOLD It took 10 months, but BTC finally made it to the lower bound of our forecasted range for the year ($35k - $44k). The past week has been remarkable for crypto markets, marked by a notable divergence from traditional financial markets. This breakaway may portend a shift in investor sentiment, potentially signaling increased confidence in digital assets as an independent asset class. In any...

U.S stocks have continued to decline, with the S&P falling 0.6% and the Nasdaq down 1.2% at writing. This week, lackluster earnings and outlooks from the tech sector have negatively impacted the market, with firms like Alphabet and Facebook not performing well post-earnings announcements. On a brighter note, the U.S economy exceeded expectations in the third quarter, growing at an annualized rate of 4.9%. The dollar has turned higher, trading...