Crypto Research
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OI RINSE TO START THE WEEK This week the crypto market started off with a bang, marked by a liquidations-driven downturn on Sunday evening. The perpetual futures market witnessed a low liquidity liquidation cascade that wiped out approximately $2.7 billion in open interest across all cryptoassets, according to data from CoinGlass. At the time, we perceived this event as a normal cleansing of overleveraged weekend positions and viewed any immediate...
Compromised Ledger Software Sparks Flash-Crash, FASB Publishes "Fair-Value" Accounting Standards for Digital Assets
U.S. equity indices are mixed following yesterday's FOMCâs meeting, which confirmed board members are forecasting multiple rate cuts throughout 2024. The meeting was more dovish than expected, sparking significant moves down in the DXY and Treasury yields. Crypto markets had a scare this morning when a Ledger software issue was detected (more below) causing Bitcoin to drop over 3% in three minutes, with sharper drops in altcoins. Assets have since...
Equities are flat as investors wait for the Federal Reserveâs policy decision later today, where they are expected to hold rates steady. While a pause is largely priced in, investors will hone in on Chair Powellâs commentary to anticipate when rate cuts could be expected. According to CME, markets are pricing in a potential rate cut as early as next Spring, something Powell could attempt to push back on. BTC...
Equity indices are showing modest gains following the November CPI report, which was largely in line with expectations except for headline MoM coming in at 0.1% vs. 0.0% expected. The SPY and QQQ are up 0.12% and 0.32%, respectively, while small caps are showing mild declines, with the IWM decreasing 0.22%. Crypto markets are mixed, with BTC (+0.09%) relatively flat and ETH (-1.22%) falling to $2,200. Gaming tokens are showing...
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Liquidations Wipe Out $2.7 billion in OI, IMX Breakout Strengthens its Technical Picture
On Sunday evening, the perps market experienced a low liquidity liquidation cascade, eliminating about $2.7 billion in open interest (source: CoinGlass) across all coins. We interpret this as a healthy purge of some overleveraged traders, and any immediate market weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to buy on dips. BTC found support at last week's low and has since recovered about half of last night's dip. Today, our focus...
The combination of consumer sentiment and unemployment data has provided fuel to support the soft-landing scenario. UMich consumer sentiment came in higher-than-expected (69.4 vs. 62.0), 1-year inflation expectations dropped significantly from 4.5% to 3.1%, and the unemployment rate came in at 3.7% vs. 3.9% expected. Anchored inflation expectations and lower unemployment are giving investors optimism that inflation can retreat while the U.S. avoids a recession, driving the SPX (+0.30%) and...
CHALLENGING THE ACCUSATIONS OF FROTH Amidst the recent sharp rally in the crypto market, investors who weathered the prolonged bear market are understandably cautious, keeping a close watch for any signs of excess. Despite the violence in the most recent rally, we believe it's too early to declare the market as overbought. Our assessment is based on several factors:Perpetual futures data indicates a relatively modest level of long speculation, especially...
Equities are attempting to break a three-day losing streak, with the S&P rising 0.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.5% ahead of tomorrowâs jobs report. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 190k additional jobs added in November, an increase from the prior month. Investors are eagerly awaiting indications that the labor market is settling down, which could reassure the Federal Reserve to stop increasing interest rates. BTC is beginning to show...
Equities are flat after initially climbing following government data that showed labor market costs fell while productivity remained robust. Investors await confirmation from tomorrowâs jobless claims numbers, followed by nonfarm payrolls, wages, and unemployment rate on Friday. Long-term yields have fallen sharply after peaking near ~5% in October, with the 10Y and 30Y yielding 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively. BTC has continued climbing, rising 0.6% to $43.9k. ETH is underforming, falling...
