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Despite yield reversal on bonds, equities market continue their retracement. Yields on the US10Y retraced 0.11% to 4.23% after peaking midday yesterday at decade-plus highs. Equities markets followed suit to reflect surging borrowing costs on future earnings, with the ^SPX -0.29% and QQQ -0.92% retracing 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Yesterday's bloodbath in crypto markets also continued, with BTC and ETH slipping by 7.4% and 6.1% in the past day. This move down has...
In todays video we discuss the sudden rise in bitcoins realized volatility and the SEC's groundbreaking decision to approve an ETH Futures ETF. We also touch upon the upcoming Grayscale decision and the implication for related trust products like GBTC 6.01% and ETHE 8.54% . For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here.
MACRO HAS BEEN WINNING THE BATTLE Last week, we advanced the idea that the recent decline in volatility might be traced to two competing forces: (1) positive industry-specific tailwinds and (2) negative macro headwinds. Additionally, the recent dip in macro correlations could be attributed to unique catalysts, notably the BlackRock ETF application. Our thinking was that without further industry-specific catalysts, traditional macro correlations would likely return. As evidenced by the...
BTC has broken sharply to the downside, exiting its tightly restricted multi-week range. The leading cryptocurrency has dropped as low as $27,700 as of writing, marking consistently lower near-term troughs. The slide began earlier in the week and mirrored the risk-averse sentiment in Equities. Stocks and bonds show little change today, while the total cryptocurrency market has slipped by around 3.3%. The decline coincides with a sharp rise in US...
WHAT IS LYBRA FINANCE? Lybra Finance is a lending protocol built on Ethereum that utilizes liquid staking derivatives to allow users to borrow against their staked ETH. When depositors supply staked ETH, they can mint eUSD, Lybra’s interest bearing stablecoin, at zero cost, improving capital efficiency and providing interest income. INVESTMENT THESIS The investment thesis of Lybra is predicated on two main points:Lybra's Product-Market FitGrowth of Ethereum Staking _LYBRA PRODUCT-MARKET...
Traditional equity indices are continuing this week's decline, with the SPY -0.29% and QQQ -0.92% both down over 0.40%. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting are to be released at 2:00 PM EST today, which should shed some light on what the Fed thinks about inflation and the likelihood of another rate hike in September. The market is currently pricing the probability of a September hike at 11.5%. BTC (-0.43%) and...
On Tuesday, major equity indices saw a decline attributed to global economic concerns, particularly centered around China, and cautionary statements from Fitch regarding further potential downgrades in ratings for U.S. banks. Despite these apprehensions, July's U.S. retail sales data defied expectations, registering a 0.7% monthly increase, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.4%. This outcome underscored the enduring strength of the U.S. consumer. Interestingly, the day witnessed relatively stable rates, which could...
Coca-Cola Debuts NFT Collection on Base, MetaMask Integrates Apple Pay's 1-click Feature
Equities markets wavered higher as bond yields edged closer to decade highs ahead of retail sales data tomorrow. US10Y is currently at 4.20% and is nearing its last highest daily close of 4.24% in Oct '22, while the US02Y is at 4.96%, 0.12% away from its last highest daily close in Mar '23. This translates to a yield curve inversion between the 10 and 2-year of -0.76%, after putting in a...
Equity indices are declining today on higher-than-expected PPI data for July. The SPY -0.29% and QQQ -0.92% have fallen 0.24% and 0.88%, respectively, while U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board. Crypto markets are faring better, with BTC (+0.17%) trading near $29.5k and ETH (+0.12%) hovering around $1,850. Rocket Pool (RPL) has been a strong performer over the last three trading days, rising 11.30% after Coinbase announced a strategic investment in...
Inflation ticked up in July but modest price increases likely deter Fed from raising rates in September. CPI rose 3.2% YoY (vs. 3% in June), while core CPI rose by 4.7% (vs. 4.8% in June). Monthly figures painted a rosier picture, with both core CPI and CPI rising a mild 0.2% in both months. Markets reacted positively on the news at open, with ^SPX -0.29% and QQQ -0.92% both opening higher before retracing...
MACRO HEADWINDS VS. IDIOSYNCRATIC TAILWINDS In our prior notes, we highlighted the market's prevailing sideways trend. Over much of the past month, both BTC and ETH have exhibited remarkable stability, moving within a narrow range. Their realized and implied volatilities are nearing all-time lows. _Sources: Glassnode, Fundstrat_ We've also emphasized the waning correlation between Bitcoin's daily returns and macro assets such as tech stocks and the US dollar index. These...