Crypto Research
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In this week's Crypto Comments video, we discuss recent U.S Treasury actions surprising the bond market, continuing bullish capital flows, and the reasons we believe on-chain activity could see a resurgence in the near term. Click HERE for our full Crypto Strategy note.
TREASURY REFUNDING AND ITS IMPACT ON ASSET PRICES The bond market has been experiencing notable volatility, predominantly due to a phenomenon known as a bear steepening. This situation arises when short-term interest rates remain stable, but long-term rates rise precipitously. We attribute this volatility largely to an increase in the supply of long-duration assets, propelled by a growing budget deficit and the expectation of ongoing Treasury issuances. While this bond...
Yesterday afternoon, both crypto and equity markets experienced a significant surge during Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference, an event that numerous observers are labeling as a potential dovish shift. Stocks climbed approximately 1%, and BTC saw an over 2% increase, while the 10-year yields sharply declined to around 4.65%, markedly below the recent peak of 5% two weeks ago. Since the gains from yesterday afternoon, digital asset prices have...
INTRODUCTION Blockchain networks initially were more like closed-loop systems, meaning the value created and traded on-chain was confined to crypto native assets. As technology has developed, blockchains and the real world are becoming more intertwined. Crypto protocols and TradFi institutions alike are looking to tokenize real-world assets and benefit from transaction efficiencies, cost savings, interoperability, composability, and transparency. Protocols have already begun bringing assets like dollars and treasuries on-chain while...
Equity indices reacted positively to the release of the U.S. Treasuryâs funding schedule this morning, with the SPY and QQQ both rising over 0.60%. The Federal Reserve Committee is set to meet today and announce a decision on interest rates at 2 pm EST. The market is not expecting any surprises as interest rates will likely be held at current levels. Crypto markets are mixed ahead of the Fed meeting,...
Major equity indexes are recovering after giving up some of yesterday's gains. Short-term rates are on the rise, causing an uptick in the DXY index, while long-term rates have edged lower, potentially in response to yesterday's Treasury refunding preview that suggested Q4 debt issuance might be less than initially expected. These developments precede a pivotal macroeconomic day tomorrow featuring PMI, JOLTs data, and an FOMC decision. Additional information on the...
Digital Asset Funds See Largest Weekly Inflows Since July 2022, Singapore Launches International Tokenization Pilot
This week is a busy one for macro events, with the BOJ, FOMC, and BOE all having monetary policy meetings, beginning with the BOJ tomorrow and the FOMC on Wednesday. It is expected that the FOMC will hold interest rates steady and signal that any further rate hikes will be contingent on financial conditions and economic data. As investors await, the SPY and QQQ have both gained approximately 0.80% today. Crypto...
U.S. equity indices are mixed today despite U-Mich 1-Year inflation expectations rising to 4.2% vs 3.8% expected, and consumer personal spending rising 0.7% MoM vs. 0.5% expected. The SPY is down 0.36% while the QQQ has risen 0.62%. Crypto markets are cooling off after a strong week, with BTC (-1.65%) trading just below $33.6k and ETH (-2.76%) trading around $1,750. Total crypto ETP and OTC assets under management jumped 6.74%...
INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL BACK IN THE FOLD It took 10 months, but BTC finally made it to the lower bound of our forecasted range for the year ($35k - $44k). The past week has been remarkable for crypto markets, marked by a notable divergence from traditional financial markets. This breakaway may portend a shift in investor sentiment, potentially signaling increased confidence in digital assets as an independent asset class. In any...