Why Bitcoin likely bottoms out in July
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and bounce by a minor amount. Yet, trends now have turned bearish, and I do not anticipate that Tuesday’s highs of 3945.86 will be taken out before prices make their way down to challenge and undercut 3636.87, even if this might require a couple weeks. Overall, while I do suspect markets are in the final wave down from late March (which should bottom in July at marginally lower lows) momentum and trends are bearish. Any retest of lows and violation will likely produce some ample positive momentum divergence and exhaustion signals which should provide buy signals for this decline. At present, this is still early, but any pre-July 4th bounce likely is a selling opportunity for July weakness.
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