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Inflation ticked up in July but modest price increases likely deter Fed from raising rates in September. CPI rose 3.2% YoY (vs. 3% in June), while core CPI rose by 4.7% (vs. 4.8% in June). Monthly figures painted a rosier picture, with both core CPI and CPI rising a mild 0.2% in both months. Markets reacted positively on the news at open, with ^SPX 1.81% and QQQ 3.41% both opening higher before retracing...
MACRO HEADWINDS VS. IDIOSYNCRATIC TAILWINDS In our prior notes, we highlighted the market's prevailing sideways trend. Over much of the past month, both BTC and ETH have exhibited remarkable stability, moving within a narrow range. Their realized and implied volatilities are nearing all-time lows. _Sources: Glassnode, Fundstrat_ We've also emphasized the waning correlation between Bitcoin's daily returns and macro assets such as tech stocks and the US dollar index. These...
BTC has retraced 0.8% after briefly trading above $30k. The rally followed comments from Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz on an earnings call where he hinted at a potential approval of a spot ETF within six months, citing sources at BlackRock and Invesco. ETH -0.32% is also lower 0.3% reaching $1.85k. Crypto Casino and Exchange Rollbitâs RLB gained 50%, entering and outperforming the top 100 after recent updates to its tokenomics...
Major equity indices are sliding today, impacted by disappointing trade data from China overnight. This decline was further compounded by credit downgrades issued by Moody's for multiple regional banks, such as M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial. These downgrades were attributed to deposit risks, looming recession concerns, and commercial real estate portfolios faltering. As a ripple effect, the DXY has surged by 50 bps in response to these negative headlines. Long-term...
Traditional markets rebound after posting a loss last week as investors look to Thursday's CPI print for clues as to whether the Fed will continue to raise rates. ^SPX 1.81% and QQQ 3.41% are trading at 0.6% and 0.2% higher than Friday's close, while earnings reports are set to roll in for the worst quarter since 2020. Digital asset markets seem to be breaking correlation from traditional markets, with BTC (-0.9%) breaking down...
DoJ Purportedly Contemplates Filing Fraud Charges Against Binance, Egorov Sells More CRV tokens OTC
Equities and bond markets have extended recent losses from increased borrowing by the US. ^SPX 1.81% and QQQ 3.41% retraced by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while the US10Y edges close to November highs at 4.2%. Apart from increased issuance in longer-term treasuries, the rise in bond yields have also been spurred by America's credit downgrade and a decline in corporate profits. BTC and ETH -0.32% have experienced slight gains from yesterday's bearish daily engulfing,...
A proposed increase in long-term treasury issuance coupled with Fitch's downgrade of U.S. government debt has caused upward pressure on long-term rates today, with the U.S. 30-year rate moving to 4.2%, the highest since November of last year. Major equity indices have experienced a concurrent pullback alongside a 15% spike in the VIX. Meanwhile, the DXY has surged to 102.6, reaching its highest level in nearly a month. Among the...
INVESTMENT THESIS Of all the financial instruments in TradFi, interest rate derivatives have arguably one of the largest total addressable markets. To illustrate, interest rate derivatives occupied over ~$500T in notional value in H2 ‘22, according to BIS. This market is generally supported by participants who want to speculate on or hedge yields on a myriad of asset classes, including foreign exchange, equities, commodities, and credit. This class of instruments...
