Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE ECONOMIC DATA CONTINUES TO SOFTEN, WITH TODAY'S CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY COMING IN AT 65.6, BELOW THE CONSENSUS MARKET FORECAST OF 72. One-year inflation expectations remain unchanged compared to last month. Rates are lower again today, but the DXY is higher due to outsized weakness in global markets. We sent out a note today recommending relative risk aversion in the immediate term as crypto continues to weaken. BTC 4.20% ...
We wrote on Thursday about how the reaction to recent macro data has been quite underwhelming. Crypto broadly rallied in response to a cool CPI number, but indicators such as a muted Coinbase premium and low exchange volumes suggest animal spirits are still lacking. Muted volumes relative to market prices, and low social interest as proxied by Google search trends further evidence a lack of risk appetite in the market....
Microstrategy Proposes $500 Million Convertible Note Offering, Terraform Labs Dissolving after $4.47 Billion Settlement
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THIS MORNING’S PPI DATA CONTINUES THE RECENT STREAK OF SOFTER INFLATIONARY DATA, WITH THE MAY MOM READING COMING IN AT -0.2% VERSUS +0.1% EXPECTED. Rates have continued to roll over, with the US10Y dropping to 4.25%. Despite the positive data, crypto is continuing to show weakness. BTC 4.20% has fallen back below $67k and ETH 6.67% below $3,500, while altcoins are showing more pronounced losses. The Open Network (TON 3.57% ),...
OVERALL, IT WAS A GOOD CPI/FOMC DAY As any market observer knows by now, CPI came in remarkably cool yesterday. May CPI data was soft across the board, with headline inflation at 0.0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and core inflation at 0.2% M/M vs. 0.3% expected. The unexpected data fueled a violent rally across all risk assets as rates fell, and the futures market started to price in additional cuts,...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE MAY CPI DATA WAS SOFT ACROSS THE BOARD, WITH HEADLINE INFLATION COMING IN AT 0.0% MOM VS. 0.1% EXPECTED AND MOM CORE INFLATION AT 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED. The data has fueled a significant decline in rates and the dollar, erasing the gains following Friday’s NFP data. Markets have begun pricing a higher likelihood of a September rate cut, with futures implying a 61.3% chance of a...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE Despite rates moving lower today, the DXY is surging higher due to weak economic data from Europe. This is a major driver behind the move lower in crypto, with BTC 4.20% breaking below $67k, ETH 6.67% finding support around $3500, and SOL 3.40% hovering near $152 after bouncing off $150 this morning. Investors are treading carefully ahead of tomorrow's CPI and FOMC announcements, where headline inflation is expected at 3.4%...
Bitfarms Approves Potential Issuance to Deter Riot’s Takeover, Fidelity International Tokenizes MMF with Onyx Digital Assets
MARKET UPDATE EQUITIES ARE GAINING TO START THE WEEK, WITH THE ^SPX -0.22% RISING ABOVE $5,350 AND THE NDQ ABOVE $19,060, AS THE MARKET PREPARES FOR AN EVENTFUL MACROECONOMIC WEEK. May CPI data and a FOMC meeting are slated for Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday and consumer sentiment data on Friday. Rates spiked aggressively on Friday after higher-than-expected non-farm payrolls, but a soft CPI report could result in a dovish...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE RATES MOVED HIGHER ON A HOTTER-THAN-EXPECTED NFP NUMBER, WITH A TOTAL OF 272K JOBS VERSUS THE FORECASTED 185K AND WELL ABOVE LAST MONTH'S 165K. However, unemployment rose to 4% from 3.9%, slightly above the expected 3.9%. The DXY increased to 104.8 from just above 104.1, and the US 10Y moved back above 4.4%. Major equity indices are higher after selling off premarket, and crypto appears to be...
WEEKLY RECAP Weekly funding fell by almost 50% to $182 million, while the deal count fell by about a third to 23. The Infrastructure category led both funding and deal count, bolstered by Avail’s $47 million Series A round. CeFi saw $26 million in funding, including XREX’s $18.75 million strategic round with Tether. XREX will use the funding to help facilitate regulatory-compliant cross-border payments using USDT. Gaming had the second...
In today's video, we discuss the intersection of bitcoin miners and high-performance computing (HPC), as well as the positive implications of Robinhood's pending acquisition of Bitstamp. As a result, we are adding additional miners and HOOD to our crypto equities basket.
STX Remains Compelling Beta Exposure, Miners to Outperform in Lower Rate Environment
RATE EXPECTATIONS MOVING LOWER Last week, we discussed how rate expectations were a barrier to crypto moving higher and that we anticipate continued non-recessionary but soft economic data will help spur flows. Fast forward to this week, and we have seen a cool manufacturing PMI, a soft JOLTS report, and a services PMI in which the price component was below market expectations. The remaining important data for this week includes...