Crypto Research
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Cryptoassets are surging this Monday afternoon due to continued turmoil in the banking industry and a violent repricing of rates. Despite the government guaranteeing customer deposits of the fallen SVB and Signature Bank, investors are keyed in on the unrealized losses remaining on the balance sheets of regional banks. As we discussed on Friday, we anticipated an orderly wind-down of SVB and that rates rolling over would benefit cryptoassets. BTC...
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANKING FAILURE SINCE THE GFC Our clients know the rationale behind our bullish perspective on crypto this year. Consumer prices are broadly trending lower, peak-tightening occurred last year (on a rate-of-change basis), and global liquidity conditions have been more favorable than many anticipated. We also felt comfortable that most of the “forced selling” from market participants exiting the ecosystem was behind us. Unfortunately, over the past few weeks,...
Mixed payroll and wage growth figures released today are reflected in Friday's trading session thus far. U.S. payrolls rose more than expected (225k) with a gain of 311k in February, while the unemployment rate pushed higher to 3.6%. Monthly wage growth printed 0.2% (vs 0.3% consensus), correlating to a 4.6% increase from a year ago. ^SPX 0.68% (+0.4%) and QQQ 1.04% (+0.5%) opened lower before trading slightly above yesterday's close on the...
After January's total number of job openings came in higher than expected yesterday, initial jobless claims spiked this morning to 211k versus 195k expected, giving markets a slight boost. The SPY 0.68% and QQQ 1.04% are up 0.13% and 0.53%, respectively, at the time of writing. Crypto markets are mixed today, with BTC trading at $21.5k (-1.03%) and ETH trading at $1.53k (-0.27%). After being some of the biggest winners in the...
Sean Farrell shares his updated outlook on the current crypto market, including global liquidity conditions and the appetite for risk assets. "We maintain the asymmetry from here remains to the upside in 1H and that this dip is worth buying. The lack of retreat in crypto prices relative to the increase in yields over the past few weeks is quite impressive. We think this is a function of investor composition,...
Fundstrat’s recently launched Crypto Core Strategy offers subscribers a digestible tool to manage their crypto portfolio, with the goal of outperforming bitcoin. For those looking to amplify the returns of their long positions, this complementary issue of DeFi Digest strives to cast light on some of the best risk-adjusted yields. We first describe our methodology to filter for yield opportunities, then dive into the protocols offering the yields, and describe...
Crypto and traditional markets whipsawed this morning as Jerome Powell spoke and stated that the Federal Reserve would likely need to raise interest rates more than expected in response to recent strong data. Powell's comments led to a quick repricing in the bond markets. The probability that the Fed would approve a 50bps increase at its upcoming March meeting increased from 31% to 51%. BTC and ETH are down 0.71%...
Equities opened higher this Monday morning on the back of easing bond yields. The ^SPX 0.68% and NDQ are trading 0.6% and 1.0% higher, respectively. However, the U.S. 02Y has turned higher since this morning, now pushing back towards 4.9%. The DXY has moved lower, assisted by increased hawkish rhetoric from the ECB. The crypto market rallied slightly in concert with equities but is stalling in the face of rate strength....
