Crypto Research
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BTC continues to slide after trending lower over the weekend, reaching levels not seen since mid-June at $25.1k. Notably, the daily time frame is nearing a bearish âdeath cross,â which occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses under the longer-term 200-day SMA. While not a surefire predictor of an impending bear market, it indicates a clear shift in trend, with investors showing caution in a seasonally bearish period....
Today has been another interesting day of price action across crypto and crypto-equities markets. BTC has mostly undone its previous rally, now fluctuating just below the $26k mark after peaking at $26.5k yesterday. ETH mirrors this trend, currently trading around $1,630. Altcoins have generally followed suit, albeit with a less significant upswing initially. Notably, SNX -0.75% and DYDX are today's most significant underperformers, likely due to recent CFTC settlements against DeFi...
WEEKLY RECAP After two weeks of lackluster funding activity, there was a considerable rebound in both total fundraising and deal count. Total funding rose to $129 million, over 8x last week’s total, while deal count more than doubled. In addition to funding activity increasing, the average deal size increased to $8 million compared to $3 million last week. Four deals were in the $10-$25 million bucket, the highest count in...
THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...
The DXY is continuing its rise, holding above $105, as initial jobless claims came in softer than expected (216k actual vs. 234k expected), reigniting higher-for-longer fears. Equity markets are responding negatively, with the SPX (-0.25%) falling to $4,455 and the NDQ (-0.68%) dropping to $15,250. Crypto markets are holding slightly stronger, potentially responding to Ark Invest filing for a spot Ether ETF (more below). BTC (+0.70%) has risen to $25.9k...
Markets are falling today in response to higher-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI data (54.5 actual vs. 52.5 expected). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both dropped over 1% while the DXY (+0.19%) continues its rise, briefly surpassing $105, the highest level since March. BTC and ETH are following equity markets, both falling approximately 1.10% at the time of writing. Synthetix Network (SNX -0.75% ), a defi liquidity layer, is one of the top weekly performers,...
Equities show mixed performance as oil prices continue their upward trajectory, potentially raising concerns over an inflationary burst. Interest rates are increasing across the board, with a more noticeable spike at the short end of the yield curve. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise, a near-term risk that has been a concern. Regarding macro updates, the next critical data to watch will be the U.S. Services PMI data...
WEEKLY RECAP In the final week of summer, crypto funding activity diminished. Total weekly funding fell to $16 million from $24 million the previous week. Deal count fell 25% to just 9 deals. Of the nine deals, both DeFi and Web3 & NFTs notched four deals. The Web3 & NFTs deals were slightly larger, totaling $9 million in investment compared to DeFi’s $5 million. A noticeable trend in the last...
In the first trading day of September, equity markets are relatively flat following more economic data releases showing the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 3.8% (3.5% expected), with the labor participation rate increasing to 62.8% (62.6% expected). Crypto is reacting negatively to the SEC delaying a slew of spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including Blackrock and Fidelityâs. BTC (-0.24%) has fallen back below $26k and ETH (-0.47%) is ranging in the...
Today's video discusses implications of Grayscale's landmark victory, the outlook for a Bitcoin spot ETF, DeFi sector regulation, and three major risks that could create tactical headwinds despite all the postitive catalysts. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. Tickers in this report: BTC, OP, ETH, RPL, ARB -0.06% , SOL 6.59% , UNI
In July, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, meeting economists' projections. This led to a significant pullback in rates and a bond market rally. Surprisingly, the Dollar Index (DXY) also surged, likely exerting downward pressure on cryptoasset prices. Amid these market dynamics, major equity indices experienced slight gains. BTC retraced its earlier post-Grayscale rally gains, a trend also seen in Ethereum and...
GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...