Crypto Research
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A proposed increase in long-term treasury issuance coupled with Fitch's downgrade of U.S. government debt has caused upward pressure on long-term rates today, with the U.S. 30-year rate moving to 4.2%, the highest since November of last year. Major equity indices have experienced a concurrent pullback alongside a 15% spike in the VIX. Meanwhile, the DXY has surged to 102.6, reaching its highest level in nearly a month. Among the...
INVESTMENT THESIS Of all the financial instruments in TradFi, interest rate derivatives have arguably one of the largest total addressable markets. To illustrate, interest rate derivatives occupied over ~$500T in notional value in H2 ‘22, according to BIS. This market is generally supported by participants who want to speculate on or hedge yields on a myriad of asset classes, including foreign exchange, equities, commodities, and credit. This class of instruments...
Equity indices are stalling today, with the ^SPX -0.94% and NDQ both falling around 0.30%. The DXY (+0.38%) has continued its strong streak along with U.S. Treasury yields, with the US10Y holding above 4%. Crypto markets are struggling due to concerns about Curve founder Michael Egorovâs huge debt positions and speculation that SBF or Sam Trabucco could be responsible for the BALD rug. BTC (-1.43%) has fallen below $29k and ETH...
Vyper Vulnerability Exposes DeFi Protocols to Hacks, Coinbase Witnesses Memecoin Mania
Traditional markets are flat on July's final trading day, ahead of a busy week of earnings. While ^SPX -0.94% and QQQ -1.69% are flat since open, they are poised for a fifth consecutive month of rises - the longest winning streak for each index since 2021. The jobs report due Friday is also expected to show ongoing strength in the labor market (200k July consensus vs 209k in June). BTC and ETH have...
In todays video we discuss the recent decline in bitcoins realized volatility and what this implies for near term price action. We also touch upon near term risks on our radar as well as a massive regulatory update. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/849285737/03e6f1a16f? share=copy
PAINT DRYING Over the past few weeks, watching Bitcoin’s price action has been akin to watching paint dry. Earlier this week, bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility reached levels not witnessed since July 2020. I shared the chart below in Wednesday’s market update. I noted that historical data indicates that such drawdowns in volatility often precede significant price movements. Recognizing the importance of this insight, we decided to delve deeper into the...
Securitize Begins Issuing Tokenized Securities in Europe and Blackrock Starts 'Digital First' Investment in India
BTC and ETH were each flat today, declining 0.11% and 0.14%, respectively. Most altcoins have had a relatively uneventful day as well, apart from a few standouts. One of these is on chain analytics protocol Arkham Intelligence (ARKM), which has risen 6.08% after declining the past week following its airdrop of 30 million tokens to ~65k wallets. DOGE also continues to outperform, rising on speculation that Elon Musk could integrate the memecoin into...
WHAT ARE AIRDROPS? Crypto Airdrops are a unique growth and distribution mechanism that crypto protocols use to attract users and give them ownership of the protocol through the "airdropping" of tokens. Airdrops involve giving away tokens to selected users to generate interest, raise awareness, and attract potential users to the project. Most airdrops aim to distribute tokens to early users and backers of the project, ideally rewarding these early backers...
The Federal Reserve is expected to approve its 11th interest rate increase since last March, and concerns seem centered on whether this move is excessive given disinflationary trends. The benchmark borrowing rate is projected to reach its highest level since early 2001. Major equity indices are starting the day lower as investors await the Fed's decision, and the DXY is moving lower alongside longer-term rates. In the crypto market, BTC...
Risk assets have remained relatively stable before tomorrow's FOMC meeting and critical earnings releases scheduled after today's close (Microsoft/Alphabet). The S&P was up 0.38% at writing, while the Nasdaq gained 0.83%. Notably, Chinese markets experienced a significant rise as the country committed to implementing substantial changes to support the property market and enhance consumer demand. Hong Kong and mainland equities surged approximately 4.1% and 2.1%, respectively. BTC is stabilizing after...
