Buy In May Thesis Intact (Core Strategy Rebalance)
Short-term Outlook Recap
Our short-term market outlook over the past few weeks has been one of caution and patience, particularly in anticipation of yesterday's events—the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the FOMC meeting. During this period, we observed a weakening market characterized by declining flows, surging rates, and a strengthening dollar, compounded by negative fiscal flows during tax season.
We viewed yesterday as a potential turning point for risk assets due to the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) from the Treasury and the FOMC meeting. Since we entered an era that many call “fiscal dominance,” QRAs have preceded shifts in the direction of interest rates, hence our adoption of the theme "Buy in May and Go Away"—a twist on the traditional "Sell in May and Go Away."