Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE AS EXPECTED, BTC 0.55% AND THE WIDER CRYPTO MARKET MOVED LOWER ON THE NEWS THAT THE MT. GOX TRUSTEE HAD TRANSFERRED BTC 0.55% OUT OF THE TRUSTEE WALLETS TO PARTNER EXCHANGES. However, the market has since rebounded, with BTC 0.55% pushing $65k after touching $62.5k in the early morning hours. ETH 3.09% has also rallied, though it is slightly lagging despite the upcoming launch of ETH 3.09% ETFs next Tuesday. ETF flows...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO ASSETS RALLIED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP, GALVANIZING HIS POLITICAL CAMPAIGN AND, IN TURN, OPTIMISM AROUND HIS PRO-CRYPTO STANCES. BTC 0.55% has eclipsed $63k and ETH 3.09% is approaching $3,400. Small-cap assets are seeing some risk appetite return with ACX 1.45% , one of our Liquid Ventures constituents, making a new all-time high on the back of its Blast integration and consistent trend of...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE TODAY'S PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) CAME IN AT 0.2%, ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF 0.1%, INITIALLY SENDING RATES HIGHER, BUT THAT MOVE WAS QUICKLY FADED. Rates and the DXY moved more decisively lower following the release of the latest consumer sentiment survey, which came in at 66, below the market forecast of 68.5. In equity markets, we are seeing a continuation of the rotation trade, with IWM...
Gox Wallet Movements Still Present a Risk, But Macro & Politics Keeps Us Allocated Here (Core Strategy Rebalance)
DISCUSSING THE SUPPLY CONCERNS On balance, macro conditions have moved in our favor thus far in early Q3. We have received soft jobs numbers and softer ISM reports, and cooler inflation figures, which have sent rates and the DXY lower. Unfortunately, the mere reveal of imminent sales from the German BKA and the solidification of the Mt. Gox disbursement timeline were not enough to put a bottom in for bitcoin....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE JUNE CPI CAME IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS, WITH THE MOM FIGURE READING -0.1% COMPARED TO +0.1% EXPECTED, CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RATES, WITH THE US10Y DROPPING TO 4.175%. Markets are now pricing an 83% chance of a September rate cut, with higher probabilities for further easing in the subsequent November and December meetings. A large-cap to small-cap rotation appears underway in response to rate expectations, as the...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC 0.55% IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON THE DAY BUT RALLIED TO OVER $59.5K OVERNIGHT. It is currently trading just below $58k after a drawdown following the US market open. On-chain data shows that over 10k BTC 0.55% was sent from the German government to exchange and market maker partners this morning, more than was sent yesterday. ETHBTC is showing strength today, with ETH 3.09% up nearly 2% and trading around...
Dissecting the Recent Price Action, and Why Right Now is Probably Not the Time to Go Risk-Off
In today's video, we discuss last week's price action, examining the role that market liquidity and psychology played in the drawdown. We also discuss the remaining supply overhang risk and highlight the key events to watch for the rest of the week. _NOTE: TODAY'S VIDEO IS A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL AS WE SPEND SOME TIME DISCUSSING THE DETAILS OF THE GERMAN, US, AND MT. GOX SUPPLY._...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE EQUITIES ARE GAINING ALONGSIDE RATES TODAY AS FED CHAIR POWELL PROVIDES TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS. He reiterated that recent progress on inflation has been welcomed, but more is needed before reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. He also acknowledged that risks are beginning to become two-sided, citing recent cooling in the labor market. The SPY -0.04% and QQQ 0.10% have both gained approximately 0.21% as they hover near all-time highs....
Supply Overhang Weighs on Prices, Investors Brace for CPI and Possible ETH ETF Clarity This Week
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THE MARKET REMAINS FIXATED ON THE SUPPLY OVERHANG FROM THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT AND THE MT. GOX ESTATE, AS THE GERMANS CHOSE AN ILLIQUID HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO ACCELERATE THE SALES OF THEIR 50,000 BTC 0.55% SEIZED IN A CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION. Over the past five days, BTC 0.55% is down about 7%, ETH 3.09% about 10%, and SOL 2.73% about 2%. The drawdowns over the weekend have cleared a considerable amount of leverage...
