Telegram

Financial Research

Crypto Technical Analysis

Crypto Technical Analysis

BTC SURGES THROUGH 13.8K RESISTANCE = ANOTHER LONG-TERM BULLISH TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BTC’S FAVOR.  BTC’s recent surge through the June 2019 resistance highs at 13.8K is yet another bullish check mark confirming a new bull cycle. While a very short-term pause appears likely (see below) we encourage investors to remain focused on the longer-term bullish technical profile developing and look to near-term pauses and pullbacks as opportunities to increase exposure notably: ACTIVE TRADERS – EXPECT A PAUSE BUT DON’T LOSE SIGHT OF THE LONGER-TERM EMERGING UPTREND For the very active trader, a pause at current levels is likely to develop as BTC rallies into the upper end of its October uptrend channel. While the trend channel is obviously not textbook perfect, it does serve as a proxy for BTC’s multi-week uptrend. With 4-hour RSI pushing into overbought territory, we would expect BTC to begin a shallow consolidation near current levels. Rather than attempt to micromanage a pullback by selling and looking to perfectly time the next intra-day low, we continue to recommend holding at current levels and increasing exposure on near-term pullback toward support between 13-14K near the rising 15-day moving average. LONG-TERM BULLISH CHARTS TO KEEP IN FOCUS DURING ANY PENDING PULLBACK BTC’S WEEKLY CHART CONTINUES TO BUILD POSITIVELY – 17-19.6K NEXT MAJOR RESISTANCE -  BTCs break-out above 10.5K in August, 12-12.5K in late October, and 13.8K in November establishes a series of higher highs confirming BTC’s emerging bull cycle uptrend. Weekly RSI (77) is building toward overbought level, but if history is a guide, we would expect RSI to continue building to the upside toward 85-90 before an intermediate-term pause/pullback develops. Next major resistance is between 17-19.6K near the 2017-2018 highs. 1. BTC'S RELATIVE PERFORMANCE VS EQUITIES, GOLDS AND BONDS CONTINUES TO TREND TO THE UPSIDE. As the best performing asset class most years, BTCs relative performance reacceleration vs the S&P 500, Gold and the TLT Bond ETF remains one of the more important asset allocation trends underway. While risk assets in general have recovered into, and through, the US election, BTCs surge stands out as one of the leading asset classes for investors to maintain some exposure to. 2. BREADTH/PARTICIPATION ERODING FOR SMALL AND MID-CAPS – While BTC surges, participation is decaying in smaller cap cryptos. The Fundstrat FS CryptoFX advance-decline lines for the FX40 mid-cap universe has round tripped back to the April-June 2020 levels while the FX250 small-cap A-D line has just broken to new lows below its 2020 trading range. Remain focused on larger-cap cryptos until breadth shows evidence of improving.  _KEY SLIDES FROM THIS REPORT_ RESUMING ITS LONGER-TERM UPTREND – 17-19.6K NEXT RESISTANCE (SLIDE 5)... BTC EXTENDS ITS LEADERSHIP TO THE S&P, GOLD AND TLT ETF (SLIDE 6)... BTC – OVERBOUGHT SHORT-TERM – EXPECTING SHALLOW PULLBACKS (SLIDE 3)... PARTICIPATION DECAYING IN MID AND SMALL CAP CRYPTOS (SLIDE 7)...

BTC tests 15K – Now what? – Buying pullbacks in an emerging bull cycle
free content

BTC collapses but holds 200-week sma, ETH vs BTC holds .22

Heavy technical damage but a few silver liningsLast week’s collapse in cryptocurrencies has left most chart patterns badly compromised with BTC breaking below its 2015-2020 uptrend. However, despite the technical damage that is now in place there are some silver linings developing notably that BTC has held and rallied from...

What next after BTC’s surge toward next resistance near 13.8K?

For a full copy of this report in PDF format click this link. After surging through resistance at the August highs near 12.5K  over the past week, BTC is closing in on next major resistance near June 2019 highs at 13.8K. With short-term trading indicators pushing into overbought territory, traders...

Crypto sells off with risk assets but is holding above first key support

Crypto sell off with most risk assets – Cryptocurrencies broadly sold off today along with most risk assets raising the question of whether a bigger correction is developing. While a deeper correction is always possible it is premature to technically conclude BTC’s May-June trading range is morphing into a downtrend....

BTC remains range bound as select Alts showing signs of bottoming

A pullback for BTC along with most risk assets but a few key Alts showing early signs of bottoming  at support – Cryptocurrencies, faded over the past week, with BTC dropping from just under 10K resistance last Tuesday in conjunction with most other risk assets, with short-term lows developing this...

Crypto break-outs pending? Tight consolidations look bullish

Seeing is believing for many TA’s but traders and investors don’t always have that luxury – Many technical analysts understandably prefer to see technical patterns resolve in one direction or another before committing new capital to a developing trend. We  have said it before, pre-judging technical patterns before they resolve...

BTC whipsaws but select Alts soldier higher following May break-outs

BTC’s temporary break out leaves it back in the box but Alts continue to trend higher. BTC, once again, whipsawed traders over the past few days temporarily gapping up above the widely watched 10K resistance level only to gap back down into its May trading range to test 9.1K support and settle back to where […]

BTC consolidating at resistance but ADA breaks out, ETH likely to follow

Over the past week BTC broke below near-term support levels at its 15-dma and then a key level 9.1K coinciding with its March-May uptrend, only to bounce back over the past three days. In fact, while the very short-term volatility violated near-term support raising trading concerns BTC was potentially into...

10K remains key resistance for BTC with 9.1K important trading support

Similar to other risk assets, such as the S&P 500, BTC has traded in a relatively narrow range under resistance through May. A breakout in either direction from the recent trading range is likely to signal BTC’s next tactical  directional shift. 10k followed by 10.5k remain the levels traders are...

The importance of 8K and 10K for BTC – Key levels for ETH and ADA

Bullish news but a volatile technical response – Despite the past week’s quick sell-off from resistance that saw most crypto currencies break below rising 15-dma’s, most coins remain in uptrends supporting long side exposure. As always, we find it noteworthy that despite seemingly bullish expectations regarding BTC’s halving, Paul Tudor...

BTC challenges 9-9.5K resistance making new 7-month highs vs S&P 500

A pause for most Alts but BTC remains resilient, challenging 9.5K heading into its halving – Most cryptocurrencies paused or pulled back over the past week after rallying into resistance bands with short-term momentum peaking at overbought levels. BTC also paused but has been impressively more resilient notably over the...

FSInsight logo
150 East 52nd St, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10022

Subscribe to our Free Weekly Report

An insitutional-grade report delivered to your inbox every week.

© 2021 FSInsight. All rights reserved. Developed by HANGAR115.

Illustrations by Karl Wimer.