The Fastest Horse
Jan 18, 2024
• 5
Min Read
Outlook Overview
Thank you to everyone who joined our annual outlook call this week. We were fortunate to have a lot of success last year in helping our clients and subscribers navigate the crypto market and we look forward to leveling up again this year.
For those who missed the outlook, the replay is now available, along with the deck, but a quick summary of our outlook is below.
- Big Takeaway: Crypto cycle enters acceleration phase, flows increase, majors reach new ATHs, and animal spirits return in full force.
- Possibly a Bumpy Q1: Short-term headwinds include the market repricing the timing of rate cuts and a likely increase in coupon issuance in Q1 (DXY higher), in this environment idiosyncratic performance matters more.
- New ATHs in BTC, ETH, and SOL: Medium-term tailwinds include rate cuts and tapering QT in an election year which are favorable conditions for risk assets. Asian CBs are also expected to continue easing. Among liquidity-sensitive assets crypto is the fastest horse. Alongside these tailwinds are industry specific factors like the halving and increased institutional access post-ETF.
- Crypto Equities: Crypto equities underperform BTC on a move higher in rates (Q1), but finish the year much higher, retaining historical high beta relationship to bitcoin.