The Fed Rug-pulls Bears
OI Rinse to Start the Week
This week the crypto market started off with a bang, marked by a liquidations-driven downturn on Sunday evening. The perpetual futures market witnessed a low liquidity liquidation cascade that wiped out approximately $2.7 billion in open interest across all cryptoassets, according to data from CoinGlass.
At the time, we perceived this event as a normal cleansing of overleveraged weekend positions and viewed any immediate market weakness as a buying opportunity. Following this shake-up, BTC, ETH, and SOL all demonstrated resilience, finding support at the previous week's low, and have since recovered essentially all losses incurred on Sunday.
Such liquidation cascades, though jarring, serve as a reminder of the inherent volatility in the crypto market. It's important to remember that achieving outsized returns typically involves navigating through acute periods of volatility.
Interestingly, this year has been somewhat atypical regarding price fluctuations, as evidenced by the occurrence of only seven daily drawdowns exceeding 5%.
If these trends persist until the end of December, this year will record the fewest instances of 5% drawdowns in Bitcoin's history, underscoring a period of relative stability for an otherwise volatile asset....Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
