The Great Decoupling
What Happens When Bonds Have a High Emissions Schedule
Traditional markets have undeniably faced a whirlwind of volatility over the past week. The bond market continued its recent trajectory with the long end of the yield curve soaring to new multi-decade highs. At one juncture, the 30-year yield even brushed against the 5% mark, a development that has rattled both bond and equity investors.
Concurrently, the DXY index maintained its bullish run. This robust performance is underpinned by a combination of factors: strong domestic economic data, a Federal Reserve seemingly committed to a prolonged period of higher rates, and a growing fiscal deficit that has increased the Treasury's financing needs in the face of a reduced pool of international debt buyers.
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INFLOWS RESUME On Monday, market sentiments were rattled by a surprisingly strong manufacturing PMI figure, marking the first expansionary reading in 18 months. This led to a rise in rates, with risk assets across the board experiencing selloffs amid renewed inflation concerns and fears that the Federal Reserve might need to implement further measures to cool the economy. However, in our crypto comments video on Tuesday, we outlined a couple...
Adding RON and IMX As a Different Flavor of ETH-beta and Gaming Exposure (Core Strategy Rebalance)
MARKET SHRUGS AT HOT CPI The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a hotter inflationary environment than forecasted for February. Despite the surprise in the numbers, market participants appeared largely unmoved, suggesting that the potential impact had already been factored into their calculations prior to the release. This resilience reflects a broader sentiment that a rates-driven selloff, in response to the CPI figures, is not a significant near-term risk....
RESEND: Bitcoin ETF Equilibrium Price Dynamics: ETF likely to drive significant rise in daily demand
BY POPULAR DEMAND, WE ARE RE-SENDING THIS BITCOIN PRICE IMPACT OF SPOT ETF REPORT FROM JULY 24, 2023 The Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved. And we are seeing the surge in price of Bitcoin because of attractive supply and demand dynamics.We received multiple requests to resend this report from July 24, 2023 which looked at supply and demand dynamics if a spot ETF was approved.In short, we believe a...
FLOWS BEGET MORE FLOWS We have recently discussed the potential return of crypto being correlated with equities due to the new category of market participants entering the fold. However, price action this week suggests that inflows into the BTC ETFs may be throwing water onto that theory. It seems apparent that, at least in the near-term, that the ETF flows narrative is gaining steam, and it is likely that the...
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