Remaining Tactically Cautious
Rates Surge on Higher for Longer
As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets.
The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher for longer' monetary stance. However, a closer look at the Fed's economic projections reveals that the Federal Reserve Board anticipates a relatively soft landing. They forecast higher GDP, lower unemployment, and kept PCE inflation at 2.5%.
The apparent discrepancy between Powell's comments and the Federal Reserve's projections could be the reason why the Fed fund futures market has yet to fully price in an additional rate hike for this year. Additionally, the market is still projecting a year-end rate that is 25 basis points below what the dot plot suggests.
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