Remaining OPtimistic
How We Got Here
Looking back over the past month, we found ourselves stuck in unusual stasis. Macro risks were escalating, and negative seasonality was taking effect, while at the same time, the potential for positive industry-specific tailwinds were knocking on the door. This strange equilibrium led to a decoupling from macro variables, with volatility approaching historical lows.
Our near-term bullish view was predicated on one or both of two things coming to fruition: either (1) liquidity conditions would bottom out (with rates rolling over, DXY declining, and central bank liquidity turning higher), or (2) industry-specific catalysts would emerge (such as a Grayscale verdict, official approval of an ETH ETF, or BTC ETH approval).
Unfortunately, last week the market broke free from its stasis, shifting to the downside. This move was spurred by an overleveraged market that had been waiting for one of the two possible relief scenarios to materialize.
Reports you may have missed
CORE STRATEGY: REMAINING TACTICALLY CAUTIOUS, TGA RUNDOWN + EARLY JAN FLOWS COULD PRODUCE NEEDED SPARK In our view, this cycle is far from over. However, until bonds find a bottom and the USD peaks, it’s prudent for more tactically-minded crypto investors to remain nimble and ready to capitalize on opportunities once a trend reversal is confirmed. While this could happen as early as next week due to early-January inflows, additional...
CORE STRATEGY: FOCUS ON MAJORS, KEEP HEAD ON SWIVEL UNTIL BONDS/DXY RELENT We think it's right to expect a bounce into year-end, potentially starting tomorrow if PCE data comes in soft. In our view, this cycle is far from over, but until bonds find a bottom and the USD tops, it’s likely best for the more tactical investor to stay nimble and prepared for opportunities upon confirmation of this trend...
CORE STRATEGY Our base case assumes that the macro environment will remain accommodative for crypto through year-end. However, in light of recent market action, we remain alert for signs of a local top (not a cycle top). That said, it is difficult to justify a risk-averse stance at this stage and think it is right to lean into this altcoin rally. Source: TradingView, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat STRONG DOLLAR +...
Today's employment numbers broadly met investor expectations, placating a nervous market. Risk assets rallied, aligning with our view that yesterday's de-risking would not persist through today. Yields continued their downward trajectory, and Fed funds futures also declined, reflecting the market's adherence to the Fed's dovish messaging. Yields Falling: Source: TradingView Fed Funds Futures Showing More Cuts: Source: TradingView Oil prices nearing YTD lows likely assisted in alleviating near-term concerns about...
