BTC whipsaws but select Alts soldier higher following May break-outs
BTC’s temporary break out leaves it back in the box but Alts continue to trend higher. BTC, once again, whipsawed traders over the past few days temporarily gapping up above the widely watched 10K resistance level only to gap back down into its May trading range to test 9.1K support and settle back to where it all started near 9.5K. It all reminds us of the title to the Pharcyde’s classic 1992 debut album Bizarre Ride II. So while BTC’s near-term trading was somewhat bizarre, the overall technical outlook has not meaningfully changed. In fact, the more interesting development in crypto continues to be the positive divergence in the Alt space we have been highlighting here over the past three weeks.
Fundstrat proprietary FS CryptoFX Indices continue reflect improving crypto technical internals - Similar to BTC, the FS CrypoFX 10 large-cap, FX40 mid-cap and FX250 small-cap indices are challenging, but have yet to reverse, their 2018-2020 downtrends. A rally above their Q1 2020 highs will need to develop to confirm a new uptrend defined by at least one higher high. The FX40 is noteworthy given it is reversing the relative performance downtrend versus the FX 10 that has been in place since Q2 2019. In addition, we would continue to draw investor’s attention to the advanc...Reports you may have missed
BITCOIN (BTC) “CRYPTO-WINTER” LOOKS TO BE OVER. A BULLISH 2024 LOOKS LIKELY TECHNICALLY FOLLOWING A 1Q CONSOLIDATION. Bitcoin looks to be giving off strong signals that the crypto-winter that has kept most coins in bear markets over the last couple years has finally run its course. The act of having taken the lead ahead of many cryptocurrencies in finally surpassing the 50% retracement area of its entire decline from 2021...
Tuesday produced nearly a textbook breakout which not only exceeded late June and early July highs in ^SPX 0.43% , but also successfully exceeded 3-4 month downtrends for ^SPX 0.43% and DJIA 0.55% . Seven of the 11 S&P Select SPDR ETF’s were higher by more than 3%, and volume was nearly 10/1 bullish on NYSE and NASDAQ, producing a “90% Up day” in volume. Hourly charts show this breakout above the two former peaks...
The SPX showed just minor downside follow-through after Tuesday’s reversal but might not immediately weaken down to prior lows ahead of the US July 4th holiday. As mentioned, prices reversed on cue Tuesday due to a combination of Elliott-wave analysis with Gann analysis which provided price and time targets based on the prior June 16th bottom. I expect that the next couple days might show prices attempting to stabilize and...
Cryptocurrency rally looks to have temporarily stalled out after a sharp three-week rally. Ethereum has stalled out in its relative performance vs Bitcoin, and for now, Bitcoin is an outperformer over Ethereum and should be favored. Weekly momentum remains negative and Cycle composites start to turn lower in early March into April/May, so given low retail interest and not many inflows, this could limit the larger rally continuing to all-time highs...
