BTC surges > 200-dma toward resistance at 9K – Daily RSI overbought
BTC recaptures a key technical threshold accelerating above its widely monitored 200-dma. BTC surged above a key resistance level at its 200-dma toward its next resistance near 9K coinciding with a 76.4% retracement of the Q1 decline and the early March highs at 9.2K.
Given daily RSI and the 4-hour RSI have now moved into overbought territory, our expectation is for a short-term pause pullback to develop with first support near 8K near the 200-dma and 62% retracement zone.
Stepping back - The big picture: A broad basing profile rally from a longer-term rising uptrend - BTC’s 3-year chart profile remains in a downtrend from the 2018 highs with the Q1 2020 highs near 10-10.5K the key upside resistance band that will need to be exceeded to confirm a longer-term upside trend reversal. Recognizing the risks of pre-judging technical patterns before they resolve one way or another, we are viewing the incredibly volatile trading range since 2018 as a longer-term basing/consolidation profile that has bottomed near its long-term uptrend (200-week sma) and will likely resolve the bigger multi-year pattern to the upside over the coming 2-4 quarters.
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