Crypto Strategy

We wrote on Thursday about how the reaction to recent macro data has been quite underwhelming. Crypto broadly rallied in response to a cool CPI number, but indicators such as a muted Coinbase premium and low exchange volumes suggest animal spirits are still lacking. Muted volumes relative to market prices, and low social interest as proxied by Google search trends further evidence a lack of risk appetite in the market....

OVERALL, IT WAS A GOOD CPI/FOMC DAY As any market observer knows by now, CPI came in remarkably cool yesterday. May CPI data was soft across the board, with headline inflation at 0.0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and core inflation at 0.2% M/M vs. 0.3% expected. The unexpected data fueled a violent rally across all risk assets as rates fell, and the futures market started to price in additional cuts,...

RATE EXPECTATIONS MOVING LOWER Last week, we discussed how rate expectations were a barrier to crypto moving higher and that we anticipate continued non-recessionary but soft economic data will help spur flows. Fast forward to this week, and we have seen a cool manufacturing PMI, a soft JOLTS report, and a services PMI in which the price component was below market expectations. The remaining important data for this week includes...

GOX RISK OVERBLOWN In a piece in late April, we noted a high likelihood that Mt. Gox repayments would begin toward the end of May or in early June. On Tuesday, the transfer of nearly 142k BTC, valued at approximately $9 billion, from Mt. Gox wallets to an unknown address generated a bearish market reaction. This transfer, likely part of a plan to repay creditors by October 31st, began in...

ON ETH APPROVAL AND VOLATILITY We expect a decision on the ETH ETFs today and are bullish on the prospect of approval. ETH open interest is well above all-time highs. Whichever way this breaks, expect some potentially whipsawing volatility. Our base case right now is that we are likely to see a bit of a rally and drawdown post-19b-4 approval, then a slow march higher into S-1 approval and listing....

IMMINENT 19B-4 APPROVAL SEEMS LIKELY Up until yesterday, we were quite bearish about the prospects of a spot ETH ETF approval. Our off-the-record conversations with those close to the situation confirmed this sentiment. ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin ETF call, also assigned a very low probability of approval. The market agreed as well, with the ETHE discount widening from 8% to over 20%...

FLOWS RETURNING TO THE MARKET Last week, we discussed how our base case remained that conditions for liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto would improve in the near term, and we continued to lean on our "Buy in May" thesis, given the constructive setup. A combination of (1) a dovish Federal Reserve, (2) an accelerated tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), and (3) a Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that met investors’ expectations contributed...

MACRO SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR CRYPTO As discussed last week, we achieved the favorable setup we were anticipating. A combination of (1) a dovish Federal Reserve, (2) an accelerated tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), and (3) a Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that met investors' expectations contributed to a decline in rates during the first week of May, alongside a rebound in crypto assets. However, crypto investors remain cautious, and...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK RECAP Our short-term market outlook over the past few weeks has been one of caution and patience, particularly in anticipation of yesterday's events—the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the FOMC meeting. During this period, we observed a weakening market characterized by declining flows, surging rates, and a strengthening dollar, compounded by negative fiscal flows during tax season. _Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat_ We viewed yesterday as a potential turning...

BUYERS ON STRIKE Last week, we discussed our immediate-term cautious approach to the crypto market, highlighting recent geopolitical tensions, tax-related selling, negative fiscal flows, and the persistent rise in real yields as reasons for a more risk-averse positioning (albeit relative, as holding 7.5% in cash and the rest in crypto is hardly considered risk-averse in most circles). This uncertainty has persisted into this week, evidenced by what we consider an...

NO SHORTAGE OF UNCERTAINTY We generally refrain from overly frequent adjustments to our allocation strategy. However, recent developments have shifted the immediate-term risk/reward balance for our Core Strategy, necessitating a relatively more cautious approach. Based on our analysis below, we also have a good idea for when the market will find a more stable footing. The DXY has rallied significantly, and the long end of the yield curve has experienced...