ETH ETFs Could See $5B in First 5 Months (Core Strategy Rebalance)

Jun 27, 2024 • 9 Min Read

Lessons From OPEC

We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:

  1. Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTC
  2. US Government – 8,100 BTC
  3. German Government – 50,000 BTC

At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply.

This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to around $60k, with altcoins experiencing outsized declines. From our perspective, it seems that investors are now wondering just how low we could go. This mentality is in stark contrast to the bullish sentiment seen merely a few weeks ago.

Our view is that while crypto can sometimes be less efficient than traditional markets, it is likely that this unlocked supply is already priced in, and that investors should shift their focus to potential increases in demand as well as other areas where the supply dynamics might improve.

In traditional commodity markets, when OPEC announces a change in supply output, how does the oil market react?

The chart in this report is only accessible to members
One might assume that OPEC cuts lead to bullish price action for oil (less supply). It often does, in the short term. However, in recent history, OPEC cuts have more often...

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