Vibe Shift
Crypto Continues to Show Relative Strength
It was an eventful week in global macro (this is now the default opening line of every note), as consequential headlines rolled across the tape at a rapid clip. Among them:
Signs of slowing demand appeared in Apple’s revised agreement with suppliers, and early signs of potential deflation were on display in Nike’s surging inventories.Despite this, the Fed’s preferred inflation figure, PCE, came in extra hot for the month of August, consistent with the CPI print released earlier this month. Markets clearly already contemplated this number in asset prices following the CPI release, but it still left many market observers scratching their heads.We witnessed the second material intervention from a major central bank this week, as the Bank of England was forced to bid on long-duration UK treasuries such that large pensions did not go belly-up (more on this later).The Bank of Japan revealed that it spent nearly $20 billion in last week’s currency intervention. They stated that selling US treasuries was not yet an option on the table, but at the time of writing, the $JPY is trading about where it did before the central bank’s intervention.Nord Stream 2, a critical chess piece in the War in Ukraine, was destroyed, the proximate ...Reports you may have missed
FLOWS RETURNING TO THE MARKET Last week, we discussed how our base case remained that conditions for liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto would improve in the near term, and we continued to lean on our "Buy in May" thesis, given the constructive setup. A combination of (1) a dovish Federal Reserve, (2) an accelerated tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), and (3) a Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that met investors’ expectations contributed...
MACRO SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR CRYPTO As discussed last week, we achieved the favorable setup we were anticipating. A combination of (1) a dovish Federal Reserve, (2) an accelerated tapering of quantitative tightening (QT), and (3) a Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that met investors' expectations contributed to a decline in rates during the first week of May, alongside a rebound in crypto assets. However, crypto investors remain cautious, and...
INFLOWS RESUME On Monday, market sentiments were rattled by a surprisingly strong manufacturing PMI figure, marking the first expansionary reading in 18 months. This led to a rise in rates, with risk assets across the board experiencing selloffs amid renewed inflation concerns and fears that the Federal Reserve might need to implement further measures to cool the economy. However, in our crypto comments video on Tuesday, we outlined a couple...
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