GBTC announces plans to convert to an ETF which should help close the -9% NAV premium gap

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK RECAP Our short-term market outlook over the past few weeks has been one of caution and patience, particularly in anticipation of yesterday's events—the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the FOMC meeting. During this period, we observed a weakening market characterized by declining flows, surging rates, and a strengthening dollar, compounded by negative fiscal flows during tax season. _Source: Farside Investors, Fundstrat_ We viewed yesterday as a potential turning...

BUYERS ON STRIKE Last week, we discussed our immediate-term cautious approach to the crypto market, highlighting recent geopolitical tensions, tax-related selling, negative fiscal flows, and the persistent rise in real yields as reasons for a more risk-averse positioning (albeit relative, as holding 7.5% in cash and the rest in crypto is hardly considered risk-averse in most circles). This uncertainty has persisted into this week, evidenced by what we consider an...

NO SHORTAGE OF UNCERTAINTY We generally refrain from overly frequent adjustments to our allocation strategy. However, recent developments have shifted the immediate-term risk/reward balance for our Core Strategy, necessitating a relatively more cautious approach. Based on our analysis below, we also have a good idea for when the market will find a more stable footing. The DXY has rallied significantly, and the long end of the yield curve has experienced...