Crypto Research
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U.S Equities are flat while BTC has jumped back above $26k amid a mixed CPI report. August CPI increased 0.6% MoM, in line with expectations. The Fedâs preferred core CPI measure (ex. food & energy) increased 0.3% monthly, above estimates of 0.2%. The release has not changed CME market expectations of a pause at next weekâs FOMC, currently at 97% at writing. Investors will be keen to hear whether further...
TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...
The U.S. Equity market is declining today as investors await the August CPI data, which is set to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. The S&P 500 has fallen 0.21%, while the Nasdaq 100 is faring slightly worse, dropping 0.67%. The crypto market is showing strength today, with BTC (+3.75%) squeezing back above $26k and ETH (3.21%) rising above $1,600. As Bitcoin moves higher and optimism around a spot...
BTC continues to slide after trending lower over the weekend, reaching levels not seen since mid-June at $25.1k. Notably, the daily time frame is nearing a bearish âdeath cross,â which occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses under the longer-term 200-day SMA. While not a surefire predictor of an impending bear market, it indicates a clear shift in trend, with investors showing caution in a seasonally bearish period....
Today has been another interesting day of price action across crypto and crypto-equities markets. BTC has mostly undone its previous rally, now fluctuating just below the $26k mark after peaking at $26.5k yesterday. ETH mirrors this trend, currently trading around $1,630. Altcoins have generally followed suit, albeit with a less significant upswing initially. Notably, SNX 0.67% and DYDX are today's most significant underperformers, likely due to recent CFTC settlements against DeFi...
WEEKLY RECAP After two weeks of lackluster funding activity, there was a considerable rebound in both total fundraising and deal count. Total funding rose to $129 million, over 8x last week’s total, while deal count more than doubled. In addition to funding activity increasing, the average deal size increased to $8 million compared to $3 million last week. Four deals were in the $10-$25 million bucket, the highest count in...
THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...
The DXY is continuing its rise, holding above $105, as initial jobless claims came in softer than expected (216k actual vs. 234k expected), reigniting higher-for-longer fears. Equity markets are responding negatively, with the SPX (-0.25%) falling to $4,455 and the NDQ (-0.68%) dropping to $15,250. Crypto markets are holding slightly stronger, potentially responding to Ark Invest filing for a spot Ether ETF (more below). BTC (+0.70%) has risen to $25.9k...
Markets are falling today in response to higher-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI data (54.5 actual vs. 52.5 expected). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both dropped over 1% while the DXY (+0.19%) continues its rise, briefly surpassing $105, the highest level since March. BTC and ETH are following equity markets, both falling approximately 1.10% at the time of writing. Synthetix Network (SNX 0.67% ), a defi liquidity layer, is one of the top weekly performers,...
Equities show mixed performance as oil prices continue their upward trajectory, potentially raising concerns over an inflationary burst. Interest rates are increasing across the board, with a more noticeable spike at the short end of the yield curve. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to rise, a near-term risk that has been a concern. Regarding macro updates, the next critical data to watch will be the U.S. Services PMI data...
WEEKLY RECAP In the final week of summer, crypto funding activity diminished. Total weekly funding fell to $16 million from $24 million the previous week. Deal count fell 25% to just 9 deals. Of the nine deals, both DeFi and Web3 & NFTs notched four deals. The Web3 & NFTs deals were slightly larger, totaling $9 million in investment compared to DeFi’s $5 million. A noticeable trend in the last...
