Crypto Research
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Today's video discusses the significant rally in Grayscale's Trust products, GBTC -11.80% , EHTE, and spot BTC, fueled by the SEC's decision not to appeal the Grayscale case. We note an increase in the aggregate market capitalization of the top 10 stablecoins and the third consecutive week of inflows into digital asset ETPs, which suggest that flows into the crypto economy might be improving. Finally, we dive into the factors affecting the...
THE BID WE’VE BEEN WAITING FOR Last week, we painted a picture of a market on the cusp of a potential rally. Our thesis hinged on a confluence of favorable factors: a local peak in rates, a possible global liquidity turnaround, and encouraging seasonality trends. However, the market remained largely inert, a phenomenon we attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the SEC's potential stance on Grayscale. The market had been in...
U.S. equity indices have been volatile today following Fed Chair Jerome Powellâs comments at the Economic Club of New York. The SPY and QQQ sold off as Powell spoke but have since pared losses, both declining about 0.20% on the day. BTC (+1.20%) is gaining today as multiple ETF issuers have submitted amendments to their Bitcoin applications, indicating that the SEC is actively engaging with companies to clear any roadblocks...
Retail sales outperformed expectations, registering a 0.7% increase compared to the projected 0.3%. This briefly caused yields to soar before partially retracing. Concurrently, the DXY turned negative for the day, while Fed funds futures remained relatively stable, awaiting the next meeting. In crypto, BTC regained its 200-day moving average, stabilizing around $28.5K after a short-lived rally past $30K. Most altcoins trailed behind Bitcoin, except for Solana (SOL -6.78% ), which is nearing...
In a volatile start to the week, BTC (+3.71%) is trading above $28k while briefly touching $30k amid a false report that the SEC had approved Blackrockâs spot ETF, sparking over $40m in liquidations (see below). The SEC has officially failed to appeal the Grayscale lawsuit ruling, giving the court seven calendar days to issue its final mandate, which could include directing the SEC to approve the conversion of GBTC -11.80% ...
Equities are declining this Friday the 13th, amid University of Michigan consumer sentiment coming in lower than expected (63 act. vs 67 exp.), and 1YR and 5YR inflation expectations rising. The Nasdaq 100 is leading the decline, falling 0.72%, while the SPY has fallen 0.20%. In contrast, gold prices have risen sharply today in response to rising geopolitical fears and economic uncertainty. Despite its commodity-like features, BTC (+0.04%) has not...
Today’s video discusses a mounting set of bullish indicators such as the possibility of near-term clarity on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, a potential local peak in interest rates, and improving liquidity conditions, presenting an appealing case for a crypto rally. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click Here. https://vimeo. com/873921551/83d8ba2451? share=copy
SEC DEADLINE LOOMS Back in August, a court sided with Grayscale, accusing the SEC of acting in an “arbitrary and capricious manner” when it denied their spot Bitcoin ETF application. Since then, the SEC's options have narrowed to the following:Appeal the court's decision within a 45-day window.Develop a new rationale for rejecting spot Bitcoin ETFs.Consider revoking existing approvals for futures-based ETFs as justification for denying spot ETFs.Conform to the judicial...
Equity markets are lower following a higher-than-anticipated rise in the US CPI. The S&P lost 0.8%, while the Nasdaq is down 0.5%. Consumer prices in September rose by 3.7% year-over-year, surpassing the predicted 3.6% increase, though core prices saw a 4.1% increase, in line with forecasts. DXY turned higher to climb above 106, while the 2Y yield gained 1.33% and both the 10Y and 30Y rose by over 3%. CME...
JP Morgan Launches Its Tokenized Collateral Network, Circle and Coins.ph Partner in the Philippines
U.S. equity indices are relatively flat today after shaking off hotter-than-expected PPI data (2.2% YoY actual vs. 1.6% expected), with the SPY declining 0.07% and the QQQ rising 0.23%. BTC (-2.72%) is on pace for its fourth consecutive negative day, falling to $26.7k. ETH -1.59% is experiencing less of a decline, falling 0.76% to trade at $1,555. Immutable (IMX), a blockchain gaming platform, has announced a partnership with Amazon Web Services...
