Crypto Research
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MARKET UPDATE U.S. TREASURY YIELDS AND THE DXY CONTINUE PUSHING UPWARDS, PUTTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON RISK ASSETS. THE SPY 0.09% HAS DECLINED 0.53%, BREAKING BELOW $530, AND THE QQQ HAS DECREASED 0.42% TO $458. Crypto assets are showing more pronounced losses, with BTC (-1.42%) trading in the low $67,000s and ETH (-2.29%) hovering near $3,750. Blackrock’s IBIT saw inflows of $102.5 million yesterday, bringing its total AUM to just under $20...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RISK ASSETS, CRYPTO IS BROADLY LOWER THUS FAR TODAY DUE TO CONCERNS OVER ACTIVITY FROM MT. GOX WALLETS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MORE ON THIS BELOW). BTC dropped below $67k after briefly revisiting the $70k level during a Memorial Day crypto rally. ETH is also weaker compared to yesterday's price action but is still outperforming BTC on the day, currently trading around $3850....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE CRYPTO ASSETS ARE BROADLY MOVING HIGHER AGAIN AFTER SOME POST-ETF APPROVAL CONSOLIDATION. BTC is back above $68K, while ETH is hovering around the $3.7K level. SOL is underperforming today, possibly as a side effect of the last of the FTX auction taking place yesterday. Pantera and Figure led the $2.6 billion auction, purchasing the locked tokens at $102 per SOL. We often find that the market can...
WEEKLY RECAP Despite 24% fewer deals this week, total funding rose 38% from $157 million to $217 million, largely due to Farcaster’s $150 million Series A round (DotW). There was only one other Web3 deal besides Farcaster, which was the leading category from a funding perspective. Similarly, Series A rounds were the leader in funding this week, totaling $158 million across just two deals: Farcaster and an $8 million fundraise completed by...
MARKET COMMENTARYCRYPTO INVESTORS ARE ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR A DECISION ON AN ETHEREUM ETF APPROVAL AHEAD OF TODAY’S FIRST FINAL DEADLINE. Congress wrote a letter to Gary Gensler yesterday urging him to maintain a consistent and equitable approach for the Ethereum application, as well as for “other digital asset-backed ETPs.” ETH continues to lead the market, gaining 1.51% to $3,795 while BTC has dropped 2.10% to $67.7k. ETHBTC has risen 3.61%...
Some Quick Thoughts on ETH ETF, Regulation, and Updates on Recent Tactical Trade Ideas
ON ETH APPROVAL AND VOLATILITY We expect a decision on the ETH ETFs today and are bullish on the prospect of approval. ETH open interest is well above all-time highs. Whichever way this breaks, expect some potentially whipsawing volatility. Our base case right now is that we are likely to see a bit of a rally and drawdown post-19b-4 approval, then a slow march higher into S-1 approval and listing....
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATEBTC IS BACK IN THE GREEN TODAY, RECLAIMING $70K FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S DIP. ETF flows appear to be returning in full force, with another strong day of inflows, capping the largest 5-day period for inflows since mid-March. ETH is down slightly on the day, consolidating around $3750 as investors await word from the SEC on ETF approval. ETH CME futures saw outsized volume yesterday as institutional investors showed interest...
MARKET COMMENTARYAMID A SUDDEN PIVOT IN THE SEC’S STANCE REGARDING AN ETHEREUM SPOT ETF, MULTIPLE FILERS SUBMITTED AMENDMENTS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING THE REMOVAL OF LANGUAGE PERTAINING TO STAKING UNDERLYING ETHEREUM. It is now expected that 19b-4 approvals will come as soon as tomorrow, with less clarity on when S-1 statements will be approved. ETH closed yesterday with a daily gain of 19.25%, the largest daily gain since January 2021. ETH (+3.22%) continues to rise today, trading near $3,800, while...
IMMINENT 19B-4 APPROVAL SEEMS LIKELY Up until yesterday, we were quite bearish about the prospects of a spot ETH ETF approval. Our off-the-record conversations with those close to the situation confirmed this sentiment. ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin ETF call, also assigned a very low probability of approval. The market agreed as well, with the ETHE discount widening from 8% to over 20%...