Crypto Research
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CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE JUNE CPI CAME IN BELOW EXPECTATIONS, WITH THE MOM FIGURE READING -0.1% COMPARED TO +0.1% EXPECTED, CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN RATES, WITH THE US10Y DROPPING TO 4.175%. Markets are now pricing an 83% chance of a September rate cut, with higher probabilities for further easing in the subsequent November and December meetings. A large-cap to small-cap rotation appears underway in response to rate expectations, as the...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC IS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON THE DAY BUT RALLIED TO OVER $59.5K OVERNIGHT. It is currently trading just below $58k after a drawdown following the US market open. On-chain data shows that over 10k BTC was sent from the German government to exchange and market maker partners this morning, more than was sent yesterday. ETHBTC is showing strength today, with ETH up nearly 2% and trading around...
Dissecting the Recent Price Action, and Why Right Now is Probably Not the Time to Go Risk-Off
In today's video, we discuss last week's price action, examining the role that market liquidity and psychology played in the drawdown. We also discuss the remaining supply overhang risk and highlight the key events to watch for the rest of the week. _NOTE: TODAY'S VIDEO IS A BIT LONGER THAN USUAL AS WE SPEND SOME TIME DISCUSSING THE DETAILS OF THE GERMAN, US, AND MT. GOX SUPPLY._...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE EQUITIES ARE GAINING ALONGSIDE RATES TODAY AS FED CHAIR POWELL PROVIDES TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS. He reiterated that recent progress on inflation has been welcomed, but more is needed before reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. He also acknowledged that risks are beginning to become two-sided, citing recent cooling in the labor market. The SPY 0.80% and QQQ 1.23% have both gained approximately 0.21% as they hover near all-time highs....
Supply Overhang Weighs on Prices, Investors Brace for CPI and Possible ETH ETF Clarity This Week
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE THE MARKET REMAINS FIXATED ON THE SUPPLY OVERHANG FROM THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT AND THE MT. GOX ESTATE, AS THE GERMANS CHOSE AN ILLIQUID HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO ACCELERATE THE SALES OF THEIR 50,000 BTC SEIZED IN A CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION. Over the past five days, BTC is down about 7%, ETH about 10%, and SOL about 2%. The drawdowns over the weekend have cleared a considerable amount of leverage...
Paxos Approved to Issue Stablecoins in Singapore, Robinhood Hopes to Offer Crypto Futures
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE RATES HAVE PARED EARLY MORNING LOSSES AFTER MAY JOLTS DATA SHOWED 8.14 MILLION JOB OPENINGS VERSUS 7.91 MILLION EXPECTED. Equities are showing slight gains, with the SPY 0.80% increasing to $546 and the QQQ 1.23% gaining to $484, helped by Tesla’s better-than-expected Q2 deliveries, leading to TSLA surging over 9%. Crypto assets are mixed, with majors showing declines and the broader altcoin market rallying. BTC is trading below $61.8k,...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE BTC IS UP 5% SINCE MARKET CLOSE ON FRIDAY, HOVERING JUST ABOVE $63K, WHILE ETH IS LAGGING, CURRENTLY TRADING BELOW $3500. This ETH underperformance further supports the idea that market expectations for the ETH ETFs are relatively muted. Meanwhile SOL is nearly back to the level it traded at on Thursday following VanEck's application to list a SOL ETF, now trading around $148. While we have yet...
WEEKLY RECAP In the final week of Q2, crypto funding bounced back, rising 64% from $78 million to $128 million, while deal count rose modestly from 18 to 20. The funding total was dominated by Infrastructure, which comprised 88% of the total and also made up 55% of the total deal count. CeFi broke its streak of two weeks with no deal flow with a singular Series A round completed...
CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE DESPITE MAY PCE DATA COMING IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS AT 0.0% MOM, U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ARE MOVING HIGHER ACROSS THE CURVE, AND THE DXY IS HOLDING STEADY AT $105.8. Equity indices are flat on the day in the final trading session of Q2. Crypto is showing weakness, with BTC declining to $60.7k and ETH falling below $3,400. After surging upon news of VanEck filing for a Solana...
LESSONS FROM OPEC We have witnessed a significant market panic partially related to formerly locked BTC hitting the order books. The major sources of supply include:Mt. Gox – 141,686 BTCUS Government – 8,100 BTCGerman Government – 50,000 BTC At current prices, this would equate to over $12 billion in supply. This threat, combined with an inhospitable macro backdrop (rising DXY, higher rate expectations, hawkish Fed), has brought BTC down to...