Crypto Research
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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ODDS OF POSITIVE TRADE RESOLUTION INCREASING: Reports of progress in U.S.–China negotiations over the weekend meaningfully raise the odds of a market-friendly outcome. The market remains conditioned to buy the “TACO” trade, and both sides are incentivized to avoid a growth scare. The news sparked a sharp rally in crypto, reinforcing a bullish Q4 outlook.HYPE DEMONSTRATING STRENGTH: Crypto prices moved sharply higher, with HYPE/BTC up roughly 50% from the...
KEY SLIDES FROM THIS REPORT: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS EVERYWHERE AGENTS ARE CHANGING THE AI STACK COMMUNICATION REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR VIRTUALS PROTOCOL – STRIPE FOR AI AGENTS VIRTUALS’ AGENTS SPAN ALL SECTORS VIRTUALS’ AGENT COMMERCE PROTOCOL VIRTUALS IS THE ONLY FULL-LIFECYCLE A2A PROTOCOL VIRTUALS INVESTMENT CASE TICKERS IN THIS REPORT: VIRTUAL
TOKEN & EQUITY PORTFOLIOS Source: Artemis, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat OLD WHALES & NEW BUYERS It seems like every other week, we are greeted with a headline along the lines of _“Satoshi-era wallet moves $5B of BTC mined on a laptop back in 2011.”_ Recall the whale back in July that sold 80,000 BTC (>$9B) through Galaxy. The market flinched on the news but eventually absorbed this supply like it...
Crypto Benefiting from Growth Rotation as Retail Access Expands and FMS Shows Untapped Allocation Potential
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MACRO TAILWINDS BUILDING: A bounce in yields alongside strong equity and crude performance signals a growth-positive environment supportive of a rotation into crypto.RETAIL ACCESS EXPANDS: Fidelity’s addition of spot Solana trading and Robinhood’s listing of HYPE broaden retail access to the two assets.INSTITUTIONAL PARTICIPATION STILL LIMITED: The latest BofA Fund Manager Survey shows crypto allocations remain near zero, leaving substantial room for incremental inflows if sentiment continues to improve. https://vimeo....
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Galaxy Digital reported a standout quarter with adjusted EPS of $1.12 vs. $0.30 expected, driven by record trading volumes, strong M&A activity, and treasury mandates from Digital Asset Treasury companies. GLXY continues to build a “two-headed monster” with both its scaling crypto business and expanding AI data center operation.Gold dropped over 5%, potentially signaling a top in gold and a bottom in yields, while Bitcoin rallied sharply...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Credit and funding stress are easing as spreads tighten and regional banks rebound.Crypto underperformed equities today, but moves in the DXY point to a potential rally ahead.Gold remains the main momentum trade for now, yet each new high raises Bitcoin’s long-term "ceiling" and supports a bullish medium-term outlook for crypto. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -1.76%
Credit Concerns Ease But Crypto Sentiment Still Cautious as Options Skew Reaching Extreme Bearish Levels
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FUNDING AND CREDIT STRESS APPEAR TO BE EASING: High-yield and regional banks were bid, the VIX fell from ~29 to ~21, and no banks tapped the Fed’s repo facility, all suggesting improving credit/liquidity conditions.GOLD MAY BE TOPPING WITH POTENTIAL ROTATION INTO BITCOIN: After nearly hitting $4,400, gold reversed sharply. If credit concerns continue to fade, speculative capital could move from gold into Bitcoin.CRYPTO LAGGED EQUITIES DESPITE A RISK-ON TONE: Crypto...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:FUNDING STRESS EMERGING: The widening SOFR–RRP spread and weakness in regional banks point to tighter reserves and potential near-term volatility from funding stress.CREDIT CONCERNS RISING: High-yield and private credit names continue to roll over, reflecting growing investor caution around potential defaults in both public and private markets.CREDIT AND FUNDING RISKS ARE ACUTE, NOT STRUCTURAL: These pressures are likely temporary, as the “volatility controllers,” namely the Fed and Treasury, have the...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:ENCOURAGING FOLLOW-THROUGH AFTER SUNDAY’S BOUNCE: Markets shrugged off China’s retaliatory remarks overnight, with buyers stepping in at the U.S. open to reclaim most of the lost ground. The intraday recovery reinforced the view that sentiment remains constructive and dips are being bought.NEGOTIATION CYCLE TURNING CONSTRUCTIVE: Trump’s shift from hardline tariff threats to conciliatory rhetoric suggests we’ve moved from the “go-nuclear” phase to the “make-peace” stage in U.S.–China negotiations.MARKET CONDITIONED...
CORE STRATEGY Source: Artemis, Fundstrat Source: TradingView, Fundstrat CHANGES TO TOKEN AND EQUITY PORTFOLIOS WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE END OF THIS NOTE. A lot has transpired over the preceding few days. In today’s note, we will walk through the events, discuss the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history, and discuss how we are viewing the setup in the near/medium term. THE TIMELINE OF EVENTS (FRIDAY & SATURDAY)On 10/9, Beijing...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Trump’s comments on China and the subsequent 100% tariff announcement triggered a broad risk-off move. Equities, crypto, and crude fell sharply while gold and bonds rallied.Crypto 24H liquidations reached $19.2B, the largest on record. Exchange dislocations, such as SOL trading $20 higher on Coinbase versus Binance, suggest one or more market maker failures.Historical precedent shows that major liquidation events are often followed by a period of consolidation,...
SEPTEMBER RECAP Q3 ended on a strong note with September representing the highest monthly funding of the year at $1.38 billion across 77 deals. Quarterly funding totals have been on an upward trend since Q4 of last year, with this quarter marking the highest quarterly amount since Q1 2023. Optimism surrounding the industry has increased under the new administration and notably after the passing of the GENIUS Act. Source: Fundstrat...