Crypto Research
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In today’s update, we break down ETH’s breakout above its 200-day moving average, renewed momentum in DeFi tokens following supportive SEC commentary, and fresh signs of progress on Solana ETF approval. We also highlight macro drivers to watch, including tomorrow’s CPI print and evolving trade policy dynamics. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.04%
Circle Should Benefit from Thematic Tailwinds, Despite its Questionable Margin Profile
QUICK MACRO THOUGHTSIt’s a confusing time for crypto investors. Equities seemed poised for fresh all-time highs while crypto is stuck in neutral and has lagged stocks for weeks.Corporates are still raising capital aggressively to accumulate liquid crypto.The majors sit at tough resistance: BTC faces heavy supply in the 105–110k zone, ETH is pinned under its 200-day, and SOL is dealing with the exogenous pressures discussed later on in this note.Stocks...
Crypto lagged a roaring equity market again, with BTC testing its May 18th weekly close. ETH’s relative strength persisted, while a $4 billion Pump Fun token sale and fresh corporate-treasury strategies may siphon some liquidity from alts in the near term. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.04%
Manufacturing continues to cool amid tariff uncertainty, the BOJ hints at pausing bond-purchase cuts, and crypto flows diverge with steady ETH ETF inflows. We unpack the macro backdrop, muted spot volumes, and record DEX activity on BNB Chain to gauge what it all means for positioning right now. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.04%
CORE STRATEGY Crypto’s recent underperformance relative to equities, coupled with a sharp BTC-SPX correlation breakdown, is a data point worth watching. We’re not rushing to de-risk, but we are monitoring the setup closely. The trade war legal saga has injected more uncertainty into markets but is also likely to result in a less aggressive tariff regime. This is disinflationary in the near-term, may widen the deficit further, but could challenge...
MAY RECAP After April saw a multi-year high in monthly funding, May’s total funding cooled significantly to $553 million, while deal count held relatively steady at 77 deals. Despite lower funding, stablecoin/payments related companies were a bright spot in May, with companies such as Plasma (DotM), Conduit, and Beam all raising capital. Infrastructure accounted for nearly three-quarters of total funding and about half of all deals. DeFi was the second...
In today’s update, we break down crypto’s underperformance relative to equities, highlighting a key correlation rollover that has historically signaled major market turning points. While it’s too early to turn outright bearish, the setup warrants close attention. We also cover the latest legal developments in the U.S. trade war, implications for macro positioning, and why Ethereum remains a relative bright spot despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness. TICKERS IN...
Markets rebounded over the weekend after Trump signaled progress on EU trade talks, helping crypto regain its footing. In today’s update, we break down the sovereign bond rally sparked by Japan’s issuance shift, highlight a new corporate Bitcoin buyer, and explore why ETH may be setting up for further outperformance. We also dive into why crypto underperformed equities during the U.S. session. Plus, a look at Bitcoin’s latest golden cross...
Unlike in Q1/early Q2, today’s trade news doesn’t yet warrant a more cautious stance. Trump’s surprise call for 50% EU tariffs briefly pressured crypto, but risk gauges remained calm, and Bitcoin held up relatively well. Strength in high-yield credit, a steady VIX, a firm SOL/BTC ratio, and a fresh Bitcoin golden cross all suggest bulls are still in control. With deficits back in focus and gold rallying, the macro backdrop...
CORE STRATEGY Crypto continues to benefit from supportive conditions, and the near-term setup favors continuation. A new golden cross has been triggered for BTC, with post-2020 signals showing an 83% 90-day win rate and a 19% median return. FTX creditor repayments, totaling $5 billion, are underway and may recycle capital back into crypto markets, boosting risk appetite. Flows remain strong. ETF demand is steady, the Coinbase premium persists, CME basis...