Crypto Research
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In this week's Crypto Comments video, we discuss the October CPI surprise, an improving macro liquidity environment, reasons for underperformance in crypto equities and how they may be gearing up for a catch-up. We also discuss the top performer in our core strategy, Solana, and how we're assessing the rally after a 4x jump in price over the last month. Click HERE for our full Crypto Strategy note. ?...
MARKET PRICES IN RATE CUTS The key macro event this week was the release of the October CPI data, which came in notably cooler than anticipated. The year-over-year CPI was slightly lower at 3.2%, just below the predicted 3.3%, while the month-over-month figure remained steady at 0.0%, in contrast to the expected 0.1%. This cooler inflation data spurred a surge in equity indices. It also bolstered investor confidence in the...
Equity indices are flat on the day after weekly jobless claims reached a two-year high and exceeded expectations (231k act. vs 220k exp). Treasury yields are falling following the data release, and markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a May 2024 rate cut. Crypto markets are retracing some of yesterdayâs gains, with BTC (-4.22%) trading at $36.3k and ETH (-3.10%) trading slightly below $2k. ETH/BTC is showing...
U.S stocks are slightly higher from yesterday's close despite increasing interest rates following mixed economic reports. Inflation figures have reinforced the encouraging trend in yesterday's U.S CPI release, with the UK CPI and US PPI coming in better than expected. October's PPI data fell 0.5% compared to estimates of +0.1%, a big miss that favors the soft landing camp. BTC has recovered from its post-CPI dip yesterday, rising 0.5% to...
Equity indices are soaring on the back of softer-than-expected CPI data, with both the SPY and QQQ up over 2%. YoY CPI was 3.2% vs. 3.3% expected, while MoM CPI was 0.0% vs. 0.1% expected. Additionally, YoY and MoM Core CPI came in below expectations, giving investors confidence that the Fed is likely finished with rate hikes. Crypto markets are not responding as positively to the data, with BTC (-1.33%)...
The crypto market is currently consolidating, following last week's rally buoyed by positive developments like BlackRock's application for a spot ETH ETF. Bitcoin is hovering around $36.8k, while Ethereum aims to break above the $2100 mark. Amidst this sideways price action in the majors, select altcoins such as TIA, Celestia's data availability layer token, and FIL, Filecoin's native token, continue to exhibit strength. The potential SEC approval of 19b-4 applications...
Despite U-Mich sentiment data showing higher forward inflation expectations and reduced consumer confidence, equity indices are rising sharply today. The SPY has risen 1.33%, while the QQQ has gained over 2%. Crypto markets are somewhat mixed today following the confirmation of Blackrockâs spot Ether ETF application. ETH (-1.34%) is trading firmly above $2k, while BTC (+1.51%) is holding the $37k level. Ethereum-adjacent tokens are seeing renewed interest from investors amid...
Bitcoin's (BTC) price has increased 2.7% in the last day to $36.3k due to positive expectations that the SEC may soon approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, causing short sellers to cover their positions. Bloomberg analysts said the SEC's first window of opportunity to approve all spot Bitcoin ETF applications together, without waiting for public comments, starts today and ends on November 17th. There are also reports that the SEC has...
MARKET BREADTH EXPANDING The crypto market is exhibiting signs of increased breadth, particularly noticeable as altcoins, typically further out on the risk curve, begin to attract more interest. As illustrated in the data below, the total market cap for altcoins (including stablecoins) is advancing towards its previous year-to-date high. ETH has not yet seen a substantial rally, but it appears to have established a potential near-term bottom against BTC. This...
U.S. equity indices are showing mild losses, with both the SPY and QQQ declining about 0.20% at the time of writing. Treasury yields are continuing yesterdayâs retreat, with the US10Y approaching 4.50%. Crypto markets are mixed, with BTC (-0.19%) sitting above $35k and ETH (+0.61%) hovering just below $1,900. Large-cap altcoins are showing strength today, with LINK -5.84% (+7.29%) and MATIC (+6.54%) being two of the best performers in the top...