Crypto Research
701 Results
IT MIGHT NOT “TECHNICALLY” BE QE, BUT QT IS OVER A common refrain among Bitcoin advocates has been “short the banks, long BTC.” Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen the closest manifestation of this trade since the inception of the Bitcoin network. There remain apparent concerns about the health of the US banking system, specifically related to the duration mismatch issues plaguing traditional banking institutions and depositors'...
MOST SIGNIFICANT BANKING FAILURE SINCE THE GFC Our clients know the rationale behind our bullish perspective on crypto this year. Consumer prices are broadly trending lower, peak-tightening occurred last year (on a rate-of-change basis), and global liquidity conditions have been more favorable than many anticipated. We also felt comfortable that most of the “forced selling” from market participants exiting the ecosystem was behind us. Unfortunately, over the past few weeks,...
Sean Farrell shares his updated outlook on the current crypto market, including global liquidity conditions and the appetite for risk assets. "We maintain the asymmetry from here remains to the upside in 1H and that this dip is worth buying. The lack of retreat in crypto prices relative to the increase in yields over the past few weeks is quite impressive. We think this is a function of investor composition,...
ANOTHER RINSE Last week, we talked about the futures market getting ahead of its skis, trading with increased leverage despite a continued lack of follow-through in spot market demand. Well, rates and the dollar have remained stubbornly high on the back of continued hawkish rhetoric from central bankers, and as we will discuss below, global liquidity has pulled back in recent weeks. Thus, bulls received another blow on Thursday evening...
BULLS OUT OVER THEIR SKIS IN THE SHORT TERM This was obviously a disappointing week for the bulls. We have yet to see the rollover in yields that we were anticipating in the near term, and as a result, crypto is starting to catch up with global equities. We can see below that an apparently overzealous derivatives market exacerbated the lack of follow-through in the spot market. Below we map...